Record volumes of avocados were harvested. However, unlike previous seasons, the demand response was surprising: despite the sustained increase in arrivals, prices did not plummet as sharply as expected.

“We faced a season with an extraordinarily high volume, but contrary to what many anticipated, the market did not fall as drastically as in 2023,” explains Carlos Ocaña, Avocado Product Manager at Hermanos Fernández López SAU. From his perspective, the temporary balance was achieved thanks to greater commercial professionalism and a European consumer who, although still far from reaching their peak, is showing signs of maturity.

The summer of 2025 was dominated by Peruvian fruit, which accounted for more than 80% of arrivals to the continent. According to Annabel Könst, Head of Procurement Central Europe at Westfalia Fruit, this prominence not only defined the market dynamics but also its resilience: “We saw a consistent supply of over 800 loads per week, with some peaks exceeding 1,000. With those numbers, in previous years we would have had much lower prices. But this time, the fruit moved.”

A new normal: 800 loads per week

Europe seems to have found its "tolerance zone" for oversupply. Könst explains that the equilibrium threshold begins to break down when shipments exceed 650 or 700 per week, and that beyond 1,000, prices are clearly pressured. Even so, the market managed to stay around 5.00–6.00 euros per box on the spot market, a lower range than in winter, but reasonable considering the magnitude of the supply.

Avobook's reports confirm this interpretation: the average price in Rotterdam showed a downward trend until the beginning of the second half of the year, when Peruvian shipments began to decline. The subsequent rebound validated a well-established relationship—less supply, immediate recovery—but with one important difference: this time the adjustment was faster and less severe.

Both Ocaña and Könst agree that European demand has evolved, although it is still far from offsetting the expansion of exports. “The consumption growth curve is rising, but it is insufficient to absorb a Peruvian season of one billion tons,” warns Ocaña. “Europe will continue to invest in Peruvian avocados, but volume saturation will be the major problem in the coming years.”

Könst adds: “We’re on the right track to boost consumption, but there’s still a way to go. The positive thing is that all the fruit that arrived this summer was eaten. In previous years, with these volumes, we would have seen much lower prices.”

The executive points out that the challenge will be even greater when new origins—such as Colombia, Morocco, Kenya, Brazil, and Portugal—reach their full export capacity. “Avocados are becoming more of a commodity. As all countries increase their production, we will need an additional boost to consumption to sustain the market.”

Promotion and planning: two pillars for the future

The solution, both specialists agree, lies in greater sectoral coordination and a strengthening of consumption promotion campaigns. According to Ocaña, “every action by the World Avocado Organization will be important, but it is also necessary to develop markets with consumption potential and extend the season. The more the campaign is spread out over time, the less the impact of the peaks will be.”

Könst emphasizes the collective role of the industry: “We need organizations like the WAO to continue driving consumption, but with more stakeholders involved. It can’t depend solely on a few producers or importers. During Peru’s peak season, more than 150 exporters and 150 importers operate, and most of them don’t belong to the organization. We need everyone on board, including new origins.”

Both agree that the goal is not only to sell volume, but also to cover costs and maintain responsible prices. And to achieve this, simply opening more markets is not enough: average consumption per buyer needs to increase in each European country.

The data and testimonies converge on one diagnosis: the summer of 2025 was not a crisis, but a stress test. The European market, with moderate but stable prices, demonstrated that it can handle larger volumes if there is logistical planning and commercial coordination. However, the central lesson is that consumption growth is still insufficient to offset the structural increase in supply.

“We will continue to have demanding summers,” Ocaña summarizes. “The challenge will be to better plan shipments and extend the sales window so that the market can breathe.”

Meanwhile, the season leaves a clear message: Europe can endure, but it cannot improvise. The future of the business will depend less on producing more and more on how avocados are positioned, consumed, and promoted on a continent that, although increasingly green, still has a visible limit.