This is the warning from Carlos Ocaña, Avocado Product Manager at Grupo Fernández López in Spain, one of the main players in avocado marketing on the continent.

Carlos Ocaña is Product Manager Avocado at Grupo Fernández López, a firm that plays a key role in one of the most important fruit marketing companies in Spain, with more than 44 years of experience in the sector and currently part of the Orsero Group.

The company handles a range of over 100 fruit and vegetable families from around the world. Among these products, avocados hold a prominent place, a fruit they market year-round thanks to their strategy of combining different origins. They handle avocados from Spain, Mexico, Peru, Brazil, Guatemala, and Venezuela.

In conversation with Avobook, he highlights the growth opportunities in the European market, which -he warns- has a larger population than the United States and is better able to absorb the diversity of origins, due to the specific preferences and caliber and quality that different countries have.

That is why he states that Europe remains a strategic option for many exporters, because - in addition - there is a highly developed consumer culture.

- All exporters feel that Europe has many opportunities for expansion in avocado marketing, through increased consumption. Do you share that opinion, or do you believe that consumption growth will be slower or is already reaching its limit?

“The European market is experiencing a fairly high increase in consumption, which goes hand in hand with the good management of many operators in the sector with increasingly better ripening and above all being responsible with the oil levels of the fruit.

Unlike other markets, Europe has a wide variety of avocado origins each season (Peru, Colombia, Chile, Kenya, Guatemala, Morocco, South Africa, local Spanish production, among others). This results in a diversity of fruit quality, size, and characteristics. Do you think this poses a problem for stimulating consumption, or is there room for such great diversity in the market?

“The need to incorporate many origins simultaneously is due to the difference in size ranges from each origin to the destination of the fruit. When we talk about Europe, we encompass many countries with diverse sizes most prized by each market. While it is true that Europe is a market capable of receiving different sizes and qualities, the main seasons are quite distinct, as the end customer increasingly demands high quality and a specific point of ripeness.”

- What impact do you think the decrease in the volume of Peruvian fruit has had on the 2024 season? Do you think it will impact the demand for avocados for the next season?

“At the end of the season, Peru’s export volume will be relatively similar to that of 2023. However, it will be better distributed throughout the weeks, with heavy shipments at the beginning of the season. This will obviously cause consumption to slow down somewhat due to the high prices throughout the season, as has been the case this year. Looking ahead to the next season, it will depend, as always, on the volumes that Peru sends to Europe each week, which ultimately influences prices.”

- Some origins, like Colombia and Guatemala, want to expand or enter the US market because they are closer and therefore less affected by shipping. Peru has also been gradually increasing its presence in that country. Do you think this could lead to a future scenario of lower volume or a shortage of fruit supply in Europe?

“In this case, the origins are highly interesting, but before comparing this fruit with Peru, the origin needs to be properly ripened and arrival processes need to be improved so that the end consumer can appreciate this very interesting product, especially in terms of size and fungal quality. The United States, with its shorter transit time , is certainly more attractive than Europe for Latin American countries, but Europe has a stronger consumer culture, more than twice the population of the United States, and, above all, the capacity to absorb a wider range of sizes and qualities. Furthermore, with an open market that functions very well when the market is not oversaturated, Europe ends up being a priority option for many exporters.”

- Are there any possibilities of an increase in fruit prices in Europe?

“We may have just experienced one of Peru’s most atypical seasons, with extraordinarily high prices, following a similarly high season in the Mediterranean region, which in turn was preceded by a similarly high season in Chile. With all this, we’ve had prices for almost a year that seem close to the maximum the average person would be willing to pay for this fruit. Since Peru has the world’s largest absorption capacity, the price trend is determined by the volume that arrives. If weekly consumption exceeds demand, operators have to start promotions to boost sales through pricing, so that the excess volume is consumed.”