The avocado market in 2025: lower supply, rising prices and growth in South America

Mexico and California are reducing their production, while Colombia and Chile are gaining prominence. Uncertainty in supply is leading retailers to be cautious with promotions, impacting prices.

The avocado outlook for 2025 shows a significant shift from the previous year. Climatic factors, such as drought and lack of rainfall, have reduced production in key regions like Mexico and California, leading to shortages of medium and large-sized fruit. Mexico, the main supplier to the U.S. market, has lowered its supply estimates by 8%, with potential further adjustments in the spring.

Given this scenario, the growth of Colombia and Chile has been key to maintaining supply. Colombia has strengthened its presence with year-round availability, scheduled pricing, and consistent quality, making it an attractive partner for US retailers. Meanwhile, Chile has increased its share of the US market, establishing itself as a reliable diversification option.

The impact on prices has been evident: Mexican avocados have doubled in value compared to 2014, due to lower supply and increased demand. Despite a slight 2.1% increase in consumption, retailers have adopted a cautious approach to promotions, awaiting greater stability in product availability. In this context, companies like Index Fresh have diversified their supply network, exploring business opportunities in the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, and New Zealand to mitigate market volatility.

Source: freshplaza.es