During week 2 of 2026, the US avocado market reaffirmed its strong reliance on Mexico as its primary supplier, in a scenario marked by high volumes, operational challenges, and surprisingly robust demand following the holiday season. Analysis of Avobook data, along with industry insights from Sergio Paz, General Manager of Coliman Avocados, reveals how this key week has unfolded compared to the past four years.

According to Avobook's data team, an estimated 1,847 shipments to the United States were recorded in week 2, representing a 15% increase compared to the same week in 2025, when 1,607 shipments were recorded. This growth reinforces a trend of greater early availability, driven almost exclusively by Mexico, which maintains a market share of nearly 98%. Year-over-year, Mexico increased its shipments by 19%, reaffirming its dominant role even during weeks of high logistical demand.

California positioned itself as the second-largest supplier, although with a still marginal share of around 0.7%. Even so, it showed 6% growth compared to week 2 of the previous year, reflecting a slightly greater presence of domestic fruit. Chile, for its part, accounted for around 0.6% of the volume, with a year-over-year increase of 10%, while the Dominican Republic reached just 0.2% of the share, although it stood out for registering the largest percentage growth, with a 117% increase compared to 2025. In contrast, Colombia was the origin that showed the most significant adjustment, with an 83% drop in its shipments to the United States compared to the same week last year.

This week's operational analysis becomes clearer when incorporating Sergio Paz's perspective. He explains that Mexico exported 1,678 shipments during week 2, to which must be added over 250 shipments that could not be cleared and remained in inventory due to the limited availability of USDA personnel to conduct inspections on Sunday. This situation prevented an even higher volume from being achieved, despite the industry operating at virtually full capacity.

Paz points out that unusual restrictions were observed during the week, both in the availability of labor for the harvest and in the transport of fruit to packing plants and the border. Even so, the season continues to break records. In the previous week, more than 43,000 tons were harvested in Mexico, surpassing even the records for the same week in 2021. Under normal circumstances, without Sunday's operational limitations, shipments would have exceeded 1,850.

From the demand side, market behavior was equally significant. According to Paz, consumption remained strong from the beginning of week 2 and continued into the start of week 3. Destination inventories fell more than expected after the two-week holiday period, leading importers to urgently request fruit. As a result, prices increased by two to three dollars per box, an adjustment primarily driven by higher demand, as fruit was indeed available. This increase incentivized more producers to harvest and take advantage of the favorable market conditions.

However, the executive warns that, despite historically high volumes, the season is still falling short of price expectations. In nominal terms, prices are at their lowest point in the last decade, and when inflation and exchange rates are taken into account, the negative impact is even more significant for producers.

In this context, the Mexican industry is once again demonstrating its adaptability. Although there is speculation about price trends in the coming weeks and the potential influence of other origins, Paz emphasizes that Mexican producers will try to boost prices if demand remains strong. However, he also acknowledges that if it becomes necessary to compete on price to move available volumes, Mexico will do so, positioning itself as a much more active competitor than last summer.

With several weeks still to go before the Super Bowl, the US market will continue to absorb significant volumes, first to normalize inventories that remain below pre-holiday levels and then to replenish them in a scenario of faster-than-usual turnover. The combination of promotions, moderate prices, and good availability will be key to a successful period and for avocado consumption to continue growing in one of the most strategic markets for the global industry.