At the close of week 17, the US market showed mixed signals: optimism for a weekly rebound, but caution due to a lag compared to last year. The United States ended the week with 1,591 shipments received, representing a 20% increase compared to the previous week, although still 9% below the volume recorded in the same period last year.

In this week's snapshot, Mexico maintains its dominance, contributing 66% of total shipments, equivalent to almost two-thirds of the market. California remains strong with 23%, while Peru and Colombia share similar volumes, with 6% and 5% respectively. Chile, on the other hand, holds a modest 1%.

The most notable data comes from Mexico, which increased its volume by 31%, reinforcing its market share during this key part of the season. California, on the other hand, saw a 9% decrease in shipments, a decline that contrasts sharply with the rest of the market.

Price behavior, however, was not uniform. This week, larger sizes saw a general decline of approximately 8%, as did size 48. Size 60 experienced the steepest drop, at 13%, a sign that reflects adjustments due to oversupply or lower demand in that category. In contrast, smaller sizes, such as size 84, saw an 8% recovery, narrowing the gap between the highest and lowest prices.

Sergio Paz sums it up bluntly: “Reported inventories remain above a level that could be considered healthy.” This statement highlights the need to adjust supply and demand in the coming weeks.

In this context, Mexico continues to ship a significant volume, but a change is on the horizon. Antonio Villaseñor warns that we are at the lowest point of Mexican supply, which could translate into a smaller Mexican share in the short term. Meanwhile, California remains at full capacity, and the arrival of larger volumes from Peru and Colombia is already anticipated, which will put pressure on the market balance.

Meanwhile, Gary Klevenger, from California, issues a strategic warning: “The key to sales after May 5th will be managing inventories effectively and ensuring committed promotional programs at the retail level . ”

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