Knowing that Mexico will continue to be the main supplier to the North American market, Emiliano Escobedo projects that "the difference in sizes will determine the opportunity for different origins to participate in the market"

The U.S. avocado market continues to show sustained growth, driven by unwavering demand despite high prices. Mexico is by far the leading player. This season, a recovery in export volume is expected compared to the previous season, which was characterized by smaller-than-usual fruit sizes.

Therefore, it's worth asking how much room there is for other origins that plan to increase shipments to the world's most important avocado market. Among them is Colombia, which has expressed its intention to redistribute its volumes, given the complexities of the European market and the strength projected for Peruvian exports this year.

Avonews spoke with Emiliano Escobedo, executive director of the Hass Avocado Board, the leading organization promoting avocado consumption in the United States. He argues that Mexico's strength prevents other origins from overtaking it in the U.S. market. However, opportunities remain, given the significant investment in promotion, strong demand, and the differences in size.

“A very strong market”

Escobedo describes that, at the beginning of 2025, "the market has been very strong."

“The year started with incredible volume and excellent prices. But there’s a significant price difference between small and large fruit,” he explains. This leads him to believe that “the difference in size will determine the opportunity for different origins to participate in the market.”

Mexico still produces small fruit. Therefore, he points out, one way to identify opportunities for other suppliers is by offering sizes that Mexican exporters haven't been able to provide. This is why Peru and Colombia are finding a niche in the medium and large sizes.

“Currently, the market for 48 gauge and larger is much stronger than the market for 60 gauge and smaller,” says Emiliano Escobedo. However, he warns that this dynamic could change rapidly, depending on supermarket decisions.

"A supermarket can decide to change the size and the prices adjust immediately," he warns, which is why the supply from different origins must be flexible and constantly monitor the movements of large buyers.

California Early Campaign

Not only should Mexico's performance be considered in the decisions of other suppliers, but also California's local production. The year began with the unusual situation of an early start to its campaign, following a situation that arose in the first weeks of the year, marked by a fruit shortage prior to the Super Bowl. At that time, a temporary shortage occurred, causing prices to skyrocket. This prompted California to immediately begin making its fruit available.

“Once California’s season starts, it’s difficult to stop it because, unlike in Chile, the packing plants open exclusively for avocados, and the machines can’t be stopped. That’s why they expect an early season compared to previous years. However, this is the traditional start time for California from 10 years ago. What has happened in recent years is that Mexico has had so much fruit that California waits and doesn’t normally start until March or April. The market created that opportunity. They hadn’t planned it that way, but, for example, the week of January 26th, they shipped 6 million pounds, or 3,000 tons. And that volume isn’t usually seen until March or April,” he explains.

It is because of these circumstances that the California campaign is projected to end early.

The numbers for 2024

Avocado consumption in the U.S. is not only holding steady, but continuing to grow. “In 2024, we almost reached 3 billion pounds in sales,” Escobedo reveals.

Indeed, the year ended with higher numbers compared to 2023. According to data from the Hass Avocado Board, 2.872 billion pounds were traded in 2024, which represents an increase in volume compared to the 2.837 billion pounds traded in 2023.

In terms of market share, last year California's local production reached 338 million pounds, while imports totaled 2.534 billion pounds. Of these imports, Mexico contributed 2.296 billion pounds, followed by Peru with 137 million pounds, Colombia with 74 million pounds, and Chile with 12 million pounds. Imports from other countries combined totaled 15 million pounds.

These figures correspond to conventional production. In the case of organic production, the growth rate is higher, as 86.6 million pounds were imported in 2023, while in 2024 the figure reached 110.4 million pounds.

The significant growth of Colombia

Escobedo warns that the limits are set by supply, not demand.

"The market still has a lot of room to grow, but if there's no supply, it won't grow. The United States has the capacity to consume more, but if production in exporting countries doesn't grow, consumption won't either," he explains.

One of the reasons that explains the strength of the demand is the strong investment in promotion.

“An average of $2 million is being invested in promotion each week,” Escobedo points out, which marks a significant difference compared to other markets like Europe or Asia. This marketing strategy has successfully established avocados as a consumer product that is not price-dependent.

Among the supplier countries other than Mexico, Colombia has shown the most powerful growth.

"In 2022 they shipped 42 million pounds, in 2023 that figure dropped to 30 million, but last year they shipped 74 million. That's significant growth," Escobedo points out. Furthermore, the outlook for 2025 indicates that Colombia will continue to increase its presence in the North American market, thanks to the certification of more production areas and expanding crops.