Between weeks 25 and 28 of the year, Hass avocado shipments from Peru to Europe reached their peak intensity so far in the 2025 season. This phase concentrated the bulk of shipments from the South American country to its main destination market, with weekly volumes exceeding 700 containers, according to data from specialized reports by Avobook.

This increase comes amid a partial recovery in export volume compared to 2014, when weather conditions reduced production. This year, approximately 630,000 tons are projected to be exported, with over 6,500 shipments expected in July alone, and 19,000 tons accumulated through week 26.

During this period of high export activity, the increased volume has led to a mismatch between supply and the absorption capacity of the European market. According to Carlos Ocaña, Avocado Product Manager at the Fernández López Group (Spain), inventories were under control until the end of June, but the pace of sales began to slow with the arrival of summer.

“June is usually a difficult month for sales because a large part of the population is on vacation, and that causes a drop in the pace of purchases. Although consumption has increased, it is not enough to prevent prices from being affected excessively,” Ocaña indicated.

The specialist also highlighted that the simultaneous arrival of nearly 1,000 containers per week generated an immediate adjustment in prices, especially for large calibers, which presented greater difficulty for their placement in traditional markets such as Germany, France and Italy.

A more gradual decline than in 2024

In terms of projections, the expectation is that shipments to Europe will begin to decline gradually starting in the second half of July. Tomás de la Cuadra, an analyst at Avobook, points out that, although the drop in export volume is occurring around the same time as in 2024, this year's pattern shows a more gradual trend.

“Last year, shipments to Europe dropped from about 600 containers in week 30 to about 450 the following week, and that figure remained until week 35. By 2025, a more linear decline is projected, without abrupt breaks, which may favor better inventory management at the destination,” De la Cuadra stated.

This slowdown is also due to improved logistics and the sector's prior experience in managing oversupply situations. Both exporters and importers have opted to quickly rotate their fruit stock, bringing forward sales and avoiding accumulation in cold storage.

“In the past, prices plummeted more easily due to speculation in the sector,” recalled Carlos Ocaña. “This year, we were all prepared to give the fruit the highest possible turnover, understanding that a sale today was better than a sale tomorrow.”

During this phase, the main entry points for Peruvian avocados in Europe have been the Netherlands, Spain and the north of the continent, although according to Ocaña, the fruit tends to be redistributed internally.

“This year we are seeing slightly more arrivals in northern Europe than in the south, but that fruit ends up moving throughout Europe, given that consumption in the north has a limit,” the executive commented.

The Port of Malaga, with infrastructure specialized in perishable products, continues to be a key logistics point for entry into the Mediterranean region, while the commissioning of the Port of Chancay in Peru, inaugurated at the end of 2024, has begun to offer more efficient routes to Europe.

This period of high activity has marked the most demanding part of the season for the Peruvian avocado sector. While the total projected volume shows a recovery, the European market has revealed the limits of absorption in the face of a temporary oversupply.

The coming weeks will be marked by a natural adjustment in export flows. As Tomás de la Cuadra points out, “the focus for the second half of the year should be on maintaining inventory turnover, exploring other markets, and continuing to refine the logistics strategy to avoid bottlenecks like those we saw between June and July.”