In the U.S. avocado market, the latter part of the season has brought a notable shift in supply. While Mexico remains the dominant supplier, the arrival of larger volumes from Peru and Colombia has begun to reshape the balance of origin, size, and, consequently, price trends.

According to data from Avobook's team, an analysis of the last ten weeks—from week 22 to week 31—shows that Colombia has maintained a steady flow of around 100 containers per week destined for the United States. Although its figures do not surpass those of Peru, this consistency has allowed it to gain a foothold in the market.

Peru, for its part, has managed to position itself with higher volumes, reaching between 300 and 330 containers per week. The peak was recorded in week 27, a date that is not coincidental, as it coincides with the start of the new Mexican season. Mexico, despite losing relative ground, continues to lead in supply with figures that during this period ranged between 850 and 1,000 trucks per week, with its lowest point in week 26 and a significant rebound to almost 1,000 units in week 29.

The breakdown by gauge reveals differences that go beyond the statistics. According to Avobook data, Peru has focused its supply on larger gauges, with 48 gauge representing 32% of its shipments, followed by 60 and 40 gauges. Colombia, on the other hand, shows a marked preference for smaller gauges, with 60 gauge accounting for 44% of its exports, followed by 70 gauge.

This technical detail has a direct impact on price formation: while an abundance of large sizes can help maintain firmer values, a higher proportion of small sizes tends to increase competition in lower price segments, putting downward pressure on prices.

Regarding projections, Avobook's Data team anticipates that Peru will maintain its current volumes until around week 40 or even slightly longer. Towards the end of its season, Colombia could increase its market share, and even surpass Peru in certain weeks. Simultaneously, Mexico will continue to gradually increase its shipments, which will boost overall market availability and could lead to downward price adjustments.

This scenario creates a highly competitive environment, where three origins with different size structures coincide. The impact of this convergence is already being felt: US buyers are finding a wider selection, but also a market more sensitive to weekly variations in size ratios and overall availability. If the simultaneous entry of large volumes of small sizes from Colombia and large sizes from Peru continues, prices could experience more pronounced fluctuations in the coming weeks.

In short, the current season reflects how changes in shipping logistics and size distribution not only determine the origin of avocados arriving in the United States, but also influence each origin's ability to maintain or adjust prices. The evolution of this balance will be key to understanding market behavior in the final stretch of the year.