The Chinese avocado market experienced a week of volume growth and a slight price increase, although some warning signs are on the horizon. Last week, 99 containers arrived from Peru, representing a 29% increase compared to the previous week and 14% above the volume recorded during the same period last year. This increase marks a clear acceleration in shipments from the Andean country, which is consolidating its presence in the Asian market.

Despite the increased supply, prices continued their upward trend, albeit more moderately than the previous week, which saw a significant rise. This time, the increase was between 10% and 11% for the sizes most commonly purchased by Chinese retailers, sizes 18 to 24. This reflects a market that, at least until now, has managed to absorb the increased volume without negatively impacting prices.

However, not everything points to stability. André Vargas, an industry analyst, warned of a possible record drop in prices in the coming weeks—particularly starting in week 20—due to the simultaneous arrival of multiple shipments. It is estimated that several vessels are ahead of schedule, which could trigger a massive influx of fruit in a short period.

Added to this is a strategic factor: there are still large operators that have not yet begun to aggressively position volumes in the market. According to Vargas, when these companies fully enter the market, competition could intensify considerably, putting even more pressure on prices. This scenario suggests a potentially sharp correction, especially if demand does not grow at the same rate as supply.

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