The Chinese avocado market saw a surge in volume this week, with 104 containers arriving from Peru in week 16. This represents a dramatic increase compared to the 16 containers recorded the previous week. However, analysts agree that this jump does not necessarily indicate a sustained trend, but rather a logistical delay, where some of the fruit that should have arrived in week 15 ended up arriving a week late.

Despite this potential lag, the volume remains considerable and has had a direct impact on market prices. For the third consecutive week, prices have fallen in China. This time, sizes 18 to 24 dropped 15%, bringing prices to levels 26% lower than in the same week last year.

Although this trend may seem alarming, price behavior in China is typically volatile, alternating between sudden rises and successive falls. Even so, the current price is the lowest of the year, at least according to the records available so far. This context reflects the high sensitivity of the Chinese market to supply variations and the need to closely monitor how it behaves in the coming weeks, especially if the high levels of arrivals from Peru continue.

For now, the balance between volume and price seems destabilized, in a market that, despite its potential, continues to show signs of fragility in the face of abrupt changes in shipping frequency or logistics planning.

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