After a 2024 marked by economic uncertainty and restrained consumption, the Chinese avocado market began 2025 with mixed signals. The Chinese New Year marked a turning point in prices and volumes, but the question remains: are we facing a sustained recovery or just temporary spikes?

According to André Vargas, global purchasing manager at South American Express Co. and commercial director of Fruwer Produce LLC, the market showed signs of recovery after the holidays, especially in week 6. At that time, 4 kg boxes (sizes 20 and 22) were trading between RMB 125.00 and 135.00, while 10 kg boxes (sizes 26 and 28) reached RMB 280.00.

Peru dominated the scene, benefiting from a lower Chilean supply and a positive reception after the New Year. “Peruvian fruit took over the market in February, mainly thanks to a window without pressure from Chile and a good reception after the holidays,” Vargas explained.

The price increase solidified in week 7—reaching a peak of RMB 150.00 per 4 kg box—coinciding with the rise in Peruvian shipments. The arrival of the fast vessel XIN DALIAN , part of Cosco's WSA5 service, promised to reduce logistics times to just 24 days, an operational advantage that, however, also carried the risk of saturation.

The balance is broken: more volume, lower price

The boom was short-lived. In week 8, prices began to adjust: 4 kg boxes dropped to RMB 135.00–140.00, although 10 kg boxes rose slightly due to a temporary shortage. But it was in week 9 that the market took a sharp turn: prices fell to RMB 110.00 for small boxes and RMB 260.00 for large ones, reflecting a significant increase in supply.

From Peru alone, 28 containers were shipped in week 6, 41 in week 7, and 51 in week 8. This growth, coupled with more efficient logistics, foreshadowed a fruit surplus in the market. “If supply continues to increase without a corresponding increase in demand, prices will fall sharply. We are already beginning to see this,” Vargas warned.

Adding to this scenario is the cost factor: farmgate prices in Peru remain high—between 6.60 and 7.20 soles/kg for sizes 12 to 24—which means that to achieve profitability, the destination price should remain at least between RMB 95.00 and 100.00 per 4 kg box. “With current prices in China, only those who ship premium fruit with recognized brands manage to break even,” he explained.

March: a month of extremes

March was undoubtedly one of the most volatile months. Many traders took advantage of historically high prices, but the plunge toward the end of the month served as a reminder of just how sensitive this market is.

The month began with encouraging stability. During weeks 9 and 10, 4 kg boxes sold for between RMB 110.00 and 115.00 (USD 15.10–15.78), and 10 kg boxes for between RMB 260.00 and 270.00 (USD 35.83–37.20). Although there was a slight dip in week 10, those with good quality fruit and well-timed arrivals saw favorable returns. “The key for March was having fruit in the right weeks,” said a logistics operator in Guangzhou.

The biggest surprise came in week 11: 4 kg boxes rose to RMB 125.00–145.00 (USD 17.27–20.03), and 10 kg boxes reached RMB 320.00–330.00 (USD 44.09–45.47). Week 12 saw the highest prices of the year: up to RMB 170.00 for small boxes (USD 23.45) and RMB 400.00 for large ones (USD 55.12).

“We haven’t seen prices like this since mid-2023,” commented an importer in Shanghai. “Consumers responded well to quality fruit, but we knew the market would adjust soon.”

That adjustment didn't take long. In week 13, the arrival of the ship XIN DALIAN with 60 containers had an immediate impact: in a few days, prices fell by up to 48%, reaching RMB 90.00–110.00 (USD 12.40–15.16) for 4 kg boxes, and RMB 220.00–290.00 (USD 30.31–39.96) for 10 kg boxes.

Rebound or real recovery?

Tomás de la Cuadra, a data analyst at Avobook, offers a technical analysis: in 2025, prices for sizes 18 to 24 fluctuated between $5.7 and $2.9 USD/kg during the first 16 weeks, while in 2024 they ranged between $5.3 and $2.3 USD/kg. “This year we had lower prices than in 2024 during the first six weeks, but from week 7 to week 13, 2025 showed better values,” he explained.

Chile had a prominent presence in January, but its share fell after week 13, leaving Peru as the main player. “Since week 14, the Chinese market has depended almost exclusively on Peruvian avocados,” he added.

Despite some signs of economic recovery in China —particularly in sectors such as artificial intelligence, electric cars and clean energy—, fresh food consumption has not yet reached pre-pandemic levels.

Increasing competition in quality, seasonal supply, and the demands of Chinese consumers have created a volatile and highly selective market. Although post-New Year prices and Peru's export pace point to a recovery, the balance between supply and demand remains fragile.

The big lesson for exporters is clear:

“Only those who maintain consistency in quality, logistical efficiency, and strategic flexibility will be able to capitalize on the opportunities in the world’s largest market,” Vargas concludes. For everyone else, the risk that this apparent recovery is just a mirage remains.