The US market faces more fruit and less value across all sizes
The US avocado market closed week 49 with a scenario of slight increases in supply, a virtually unchanged mix of origins, and continued price volatility. Mexico maintains absolute dominance with a 96% market share, followed at a considerable distance by California and Chile, each with around 2%. The Dominican Republic retains a marginal presence, while the remaining origins have practically disappeared from the market.
Estimated arrivals reached 1,489 containers, a 2% increase compared to the previous week and 4% higher year-over-year. Mexico remained virtually unchanged, with a 1% increase, while Chile shipped slightly more fruit. Slight increases were also recorded from California and even Colombia, although these latter figures do not represent significant changes in the market structure.
In terms of prices, the trend is once again tilting downwards. All sizes registered declines, although to varying degrees. Larger sizes were the least affected, with drops ranging between 4% and 5%. The most severe impact was observed in smaller sizes: 84 fell by 12% and 70 by 11%. Volatility persists, marked by intermittent movements without a clear upward or downward trend compared to previous weeks.
The experts' perspective provides context to the current situation. Antonio Villaseñor anticipates that volumes will remain stable until the last two weeks of December, when a significant decrease is expected due to the end-of-year celebrations. According to his analysis, normalcy should return during the first week of January.
Sergio Paz, for his part, points out that although sizes 60 and smaller have shown better demand, this has not translated into higher prices. He also warns that export volumes continue to be above ideal, which has driven inventory growth and is putting downward pressure on virtually all sales prices.
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