The 2026 Hass avocado season in Brazil isn't starting with announcements, but rather with technical projections, climate variables, and concrete signals from regional markets. As a still-emerging origin within the international Hass trade, this season's focus is on consolidating production growth, organizing exportable supply, and improving quality, rather than on a rapid expansion of volume.

According to Adilson Luis Penariol, president of the Brazilian Avocado Association (Abacates do Brasil, AAB) and partner and director of AvoPrime Frutas SA, the start of the harvest is determined by technical maturity criteria that define the pace of market release. “Starting in week 7, the country begins the first Hass harvests in the warmer regions, when the fruit reaches a dry matter content above 21%. Volumes gain momentum from week 12 and grow steadily until reaching their peak between weeks 16 and 28,” he explains.

One of the key factors behind these projections is weather patterns. Penariol points out that, unlike the previous season, the spring of 2025 presented more favorable conditions for crop development. “We had milder temperatures and regular rainfall, which resulted in higher production and significantly better quality than the previous harvest,” he explains. The 2025 season was marked by a production shortfall due to adverse weather events, while for 2026, production is projected to be between 55,000 and 60,000 tons, compared to approximately 35,000 tons in the previous cycle.

However, the impact of the weather was not uniform across the country. Some specific regions experienced hailstorms that affected fruit quality, limiting its suitability for export and redirecting some of that production to the domestic market or industrial processing. Despite this, the lower-lying, warmer regions—such as Paraná, the north-central part of São Paulo state, and the lowlands of Minas Gerais—are experiencing the greatest activity this season. “These areas will not only contribute a much larger volume, but also fruit of significantly higher quality than last year,” says Penariol. In contrast, traditional growing areas like Alto Paranaíba and southern Minas Gerais are expected to show more moderate increases.

From a commercial standpoint, the 2025 season closed with shipments remaining virtually unchanged in volume, but with significant growth in value. Brazil exported 24,983 tons of avocados, compared to 24,622 tons in 2024, while the export value increased from US$36.2 million to US$48.6 million, a rise of over 34%. “It was a harvest with a production deficit, but with a very positive valuation of the Brazilian fruit,” Penariol emphasizes.

Chile was one of the markets that received the first exploratory shipments of Brazilian Hass avocados during the peak of the last harvest. In 2025, four shipments were made, the main objective of which was to test the product's reception. “We received very positive feedback from Chile. The fruit met expectations in terms of quality and condition, and we see room to work with more significant volumes in 2026, when we will have more fruit of better quality,” says the executive, also highlighting the logistical proximity and seasonal complementarity as favorable factors.

The analysis of market behavior is complemented by the opinion column from week 3 by Tiago Falanghe Carvalho, Commercial Director of Avocado Jaguacy Agroindustria LTDA., where he examines the transition between the end of the 2025 season and the start of the new campaign. In his analysis, Carvalho notes that December showed a slight increase in the volume traded in the CEAGESP wholesale market, accompanied by a price decrease compared to November. As of January 9, 2026, Hass avocado prices ranged between USD 2.20 and USD 2.85 per kilo, with a very limited presence of fruit imported from Chile and a supply still sustained by domestic production.

In terms of exports, Brazil maintained regular shipments to Argentina and Uruguay throughout the end of 2025, in addition to two one-off shipments to Chile. FOB prices were around USD 1.97/kg for Argentina, USD 1.80/kg for Uruguay, and USD 1.74/kg for Chile. “The 2025 export season has already ended, and Brazil will resume shipments for the new season toward the end of January 2026,” Carvalho notes in his column.

From a business perspective, the executive projects that the 2026 harvest will reach a volume of approximately 60,000 tons. Of that total, more than 45,500 tons would be destined for export, equivalent to about 1,900 cartloads or containers, while the domestic market would absorb around 4,800 tons.

The remaining volume, close to 12,500 tons, would be destined for disposal and industrial processing, such as oil and pulp. The largest export flow would be concentrated between March and April, with weekly volumes exceeding one million kilos, before gradually declining towards the second half of the year.

This scenario of production expansion also presents challenges in infrastructure and logistics. Penariol highlights the investments made in new packing plants and the expansion of existing facilities, as part of a strategy to support growth. “The increase in volumes can become a bottleneck if investment doesn't continue. In the coming years, it will be necessary to add new packing plants to sustain this pace,” he warns.

With an expanding production base, a developing export calendar, and a positive reception in nearby markets such as Chile, Brazil begins the 2026 Hass avocado campaign with a clear roadmap, focused on consolidating its growth and gradually moving towards larger volumes in the medium term.