The drought has hit production in São Paulo, but the country is making progress in positioning itself as an international supplier. Argentina, Europe, Morocco, and Chile are already among the destinations, and the United States is emerging as a key trade frontier.

Brazil has just concluded its 2025 Hass avocado export season with a total volume of 22,000 tons. This figure, while considerable, falls short of the country's production potential due to the severe drought that has affected the main growing regions over the past three years. The climatic impact resulted in the loss of more than 70% of the crop, explained Cecilia Whately, managing partner of Carlini Avocado Brasil and vice president of Abacates do Brasil. The state of São Paulo, the most important in terms of planted area and exports, was the most severely affected.

Currently, Brazil has approximately 30,000 hectares dedicated to avocado cultivation, a third of which is planted with the Hass variety, which is becoming the preferred choice for the international market. Despite challenges, the country has managed to maintain its export pace, positioning itself as an increasingly prominent supplier on the global avocado map.

New markets and trade diversification

During this season, the main destinations for Brazilian fruit were Argentina and Uruguay. Between six and eight truckloads were shipped weekly to the Argentinian market, while Uruguay received an average of one truckload per week. Exports to Europe were also significant, although they have now concluded for this season. Among European countries, shipments to the United Kingdom stood out, and shipments to Morocco were also recorded, marking a growing diversification of traditional destinations.

One of the milestones of this campaign was the start of shipments to Chile, representing a significant opening in the South American context. This entry is considered strategic for Brazil, which continues to expand its network of destinations. Furthermore, the sector is increasingly focused on the possibility of entering the US market, considered high-value and with great growth potential for Brazilian products.

According to Tiago Falanghe Carvalho, commercial director of Avocado Jaguacy, as of the end of July, approximately 1,400 tons remained to be harvested in Brazilian fields, which will allow them to maintain the pace of exports to the Southern Cone until September. Meanwhile, air shipments of tropical avocados continue, a sales channel that is gaining ground now that the Hass avocado season has ended.

A domestic market with stable demand and moderate prices

Domestically, the Hass avocado market in Brazil also reflected the effects of reduced availability. During July 2025, prices at the country's main wholesale market, CEAGESP, remained relatively stable, fluctuating between R$10 and R$12 per kilo (between USD 1.78 and USD 2.14). While these prices did not represent peak levels, they remain within a range considered healthy for domestic trade, given the context of limited supply.

Currently, the market supply is sustained by fruit from regular flowering, which has dry matter levels between 28% and 30%. However, the harvest of fruit from the so-called "unpredictable flowering," with a dry matter content of around 23%, has also begun. This early-ripening fruit will allow the local supply to be maintained until the end of October.

CEAGESP represents approximately 80% of the Hass avocado traded in Brazil. Historical data from this wholesale market shows that the total volume traded in 2025 is significantly lower than in previous seasons. For example, 2023 ended with over 3.4 million kilos sold in this market. In contrast, 2025 shows a significantly lower total, reflecting the direct impact of the drought and the resulting fruit shortage.

Growth projections until 2028

Despite the current complex situation, the sector's projections are optimistic. Cecilia Whately anticipates a recovery scenario as early as the next season, with new producers entering the export market and improved weather conditions. In this context, total production is expected to reach 25,000 tons in 2025. The projected figure for 2026 rises to 60,000 tons, and continues to climb to 80,000 tons in 2027. Finally, if conditions align, the country could reach 100,000 tons of annual production by 2028.

This projected growth is supported by several factors: the incorporation of technologically advanced areas, the genetic improvement of crops, the strengthening of producer associations, and the development of more aggressive marketing strategies geared toward the export market. Also noteworthy is the growing interest in adopting international quality and traceability standards, which are essential for accessing more demanding markets such as the North American market.

In summary, Brazil closes a cycle with mixed results: limited in volume due to weather conditions, but solid in terms of international consolidation and projected growth. Looking to the medium term, the country is making steady progress toward positioning itself as a relevant and competitive player in the global Hass avocado market.