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US Market – Week 6 Closing

Arrivals to the US fall 24% while Mexico maintains its lead

Arrivals drop 24% after the Super Bowl, but remain 44% above the 2025 target. Mexico maintains a 97% share.

With 1,400 shipments recorded, the US market showed a significant adjustment in volume. Arrivals fell 24% compared to the previous week, although they are still 44% higher than the same period last year.

Mexico continues to hold 97% of the market, with no significant changes in its market share structure. The remaining volume is distributed among the Dominican Republic (2%), California (1%), and Colombia (similar figures).

The weekly decrease reflects typical post-Super Bowl behavior. Week 6 traditionally marks a significant adjustment in shipments, and while this year's decline was substantial, there have been seasons with proportionally larger drops. Compared to the previous week, the decline came primarily from Mexico, whose shipments fell by 23%. In contrast, the Dominican Republic increased its shipments by 60%, albeit at limited volumes.

In terms of prices, a slight decrease of 2% was observed in the largest sizes, between 32 and 40. The remaining sizes remained stable, with the exception of size 70, which saw a 3% increase. No other significant changes were reported. Last year, prices remained high until around week 10, at which point they began to gradually decline toward the end of the season.

Antonio Villaseñor noted that Mexico's strong supply will continue to be a key factor in the market and anticipated significant promotions leading up to May 5th, a date that is once again becoming a focal point for trade. Meanwhile, Gary Clevenger indicated that Mexico generally reduces its supply as spring approaches, which helps create space for California, although this decrease doesn't always coincide with the peak weeks projected for that origin.

Remember that the detailed breakdown of each figure and the weekly evolution of global avocado market movements across all markets and origins can be found in the Avobook Premium Report. Subscribe now at avobook.com

 

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