José Antonio Castro told Avobook that a 37% increase in volume is expected for the Peruvian avocado campaign in 2025. The trade association representative explained how this projection was calculated and analyzed the impact of the United States' tariff announcements.

On Friday, April 4, the Peruvian Hass Avocado Producers and Exporters Association, ProHAss, put an end to the uncertainty surrounding its export volume projections for the 2025 season. In a public statement, it announced what it described as “a record-breaking promotional campaign in Europe and key international and local markets.”

“After three years of adverse weather conditions, projections for the 2025 season are optimistic, with an estimated growth of 37%. This increase represents a significant recovery, considering that last year saw a 10% drop compared to 2023, which in turn only grew by 1% compared to 2022,” stated the Peruvian avocado industry association.

This is a very significant piece of information for players in the global avocado trade, especially since Peru is the world's second-largest producer and exporter of Hass avocados, with over 77,000 hectares under cultivation. This status means that its decisions always impact those of other countries with which it shares markets.

According to the trade association itself, Peruvian exports have Europe as their main destination (57%), followed by the United States (17%), Chile (10%) and China (7%), in addition to other markets that make up the remaining 9%.

Avobook spoke with the president of ProHass, José Antonio Castro, who explains the growth projection for this campaign and the strategies to face the challenges of a world economy influenced by tariff battles that were not in anyone's accounts.

- With a projected 37% increase in the 2025 campaign, how will shipments be distributed throughout the year to avoid impacting prices? Will it be a year of peak periods or will there be a distribution with flatter curves than in previous years?

“Throughout history, the production and exportable supply curve of Peruvian Hass avocados has followed the same pattern and seasonality. This supply has grown over the years, and thanks to the international and national promotion led by ProHass, as well as its close collaboration and coordination with Senasa and other government institutions in opening new markets, Peruvian Hass avocados have become known worldwide. Given this consistent and likely ongoing seasonality, ProHass aims to communicate to its members and the industry in general the weekly export volumes and destinations, in order to ensure an orderly supply to each market, taking into account its size and characteristics.”

- Does this projection apply to the entire industry or only to ProHass members?

“This projection is the result of technical work that ProHass has been carrying out for many years. The results show that the time between what ProHass, as the leading institution for Peruvian Hass avocados, projects and the final results of each season has an average deviation of +/-5% in recent years. ProHass receives information from its members and from non-member companies that wish to collaborate in order to consolidate the data and provide a useful presentation for the entire industry. In the case of companies that do not provide their projections, historical data for each company and the region where they are located are used, and a conservative projection of their volumes is made based on this information. This is how total volumes, by week and by market, are calculated.”

- What percentage of production is staying in the domestic market and what is the objective of the national promotion campaign that will be carried out to encourage consumption within Peru?

“In the domestic market, for national consumption as fresh avocados, less than 2.5% of the total produced remains. Let us remember that a percentage not destined for export as fresh avocados is destined for the frozen food industry and other processes.”

- What impact does the United States' decision to impose tariffs on imports have, where Peru is also included with a 10% tax, just when Peru is projecting growth in shipments to that market?

“Significant growth is projected in Peruvian Hass avocado shipments to the United States. Regardless of the final volume, the important thing is to ensure high quality, a solid sales program, and distribution through American companies with expertise in avocado handling to meet the established targets and schedules. The 10% tariff imposed by the United States on Hass avocados is now a reality. Compared to Mexico's 0% tariff, this puts us at a disadvantage. However, an important consideration is that if, in an effort to avoid this 10% tariff, the volume allocated to the United States is not used instead, and the focus shifts to other markets, the resulting oversupply in those markets could ultimately result in a higher tariff than the 10% we will face in the United States.”

- With the high growth in volumes, there could be a push to ship fruit quickly. How are you promoting a culture of quality among your members to ensure compliance with the minimum dry matter content (22%), and how do non-members of ProHass behave in this regard, in order to safeguard the reputation of Peruvian fruit in the market?

“ProHass has been working in coordination with the Ministry of Agriculture, Senasa and INIA, to coordinate all the work, from the field to the packing plants, with the objective of ensuring that the Hass avocado that is exported meets the requirements demanded by each country, whether in terms of dry matter, phytosanitary condition, food safety etc.”

- Will this be a year in which the increased volume will represent better returns for the producer, or is there an adjustment in expectations?

“The return to the producer is determined by the price and costs in the supply chain. The market price is regulated by supply and demand. The producer must focus on maximizing their production and controlling their costs.”

- What sizes will Peru contribute the most to the market this season?

“An 'ON' year is expected for the Peruvian industry, so we should be expecting a year with a supply of 75% between the 14/16/18 gauges. It is not a year with a high presence of large and small gauges.”

- Is there a projection of the eventual arrival of other origins to Chile and, if so, how will Peru maintain its position as the main external supplier to that market?

“Peru doesn’t reach any market alone. Chile is probably the only case where we go it alone and compete against a smaller percentage of local avocados between May and July. For Peru, Chile is its third most important market, one that it must know how to serve, nurture, and develop. All of this stems from good organization and improving quality. Due to its geographical location, Peru should be the most cost- and quality-competitive source of off-season avocados for the Chilean market.”