The European avocado market is undergoing a period of restructuring in its supply chain. Israel, historically a key supplier during the Northern Hemisphere winter season, is maintaining stable production and export volumes, but its presence in European supermarkets has been reduced in the second half of 2025 due to trade decisions driven by the international political situation.

According to Avobook's data team, Israeli shipments to the European market have fluctuated in recent years. In 2022, 3,300 shipments were recorded; in 2023, the volume fell to approximately 2,700; but in 2024, there was a significant recovery with 4,073 shipments. As of week 37 of 2025, approximately 2,700 shipments have been recorded, and projections indicate that the year will close above 3,800. This data reflects that, at the source, the Israeli supply has not collapsed.

However, exporters point out that the problem lies not in production, but in market acceptance. Eitan Zvi, CEO of Galilee Export—a company that handles approximately 40% of Israeli avocado exports—stated that there are isolated boycotts in parts of Northern Europe, although most supermarket chains still maintain purchasing programs. According to Zvi, Israel projects exporting around 132,000 tons in the 2025/26 season, in line with previous years' volumes, though he cautioned that political perceptions are affecting fruit placement in some markets.

Ofer Levin, from the exporting company Yapro, shared a similar view in statements to another international media outlet. He acknowledged that buyers like Aldi have tried to avoid Israeli products and that chains like Co-op in the UK and Italy have explicitly stopped selling them. Levin emphasized that, beyond harvest figures, reputational pressure and internal decisions by retailers are contributing to the absence of Israeli avocados on supermarket shelves in certain European countries.

Meanwhile, the European Commission has reported that agri-food imports from Israel increased by 4.5% in value in 2024, demonstrating that there is no general collapse in trade, but rather localized impacts on sensitive products such as avocados. Even so, analysts at Rabobank point out that during the winter months, when global supply is tighter, the decrease in Israeli fruit available in supermarkets tends to put upward pressure on prices, especially for larger sizes.

This market realignment opens up space for other origins. According to Avobook, Colombia and Chile have begun to lead in shipping volumes to Europe in recent weeks, while Morocco and Spain will gain prominence as the winter season progresses.

This trend coincides with the analysis of the CBI, the Netherlands' foreign trade agency, which identifies these countries as strategic replacement suppliers in the October-March window.

In conclusion, Israel maintains a stable production level and has prospects of exporting more than 130,000 tons of avocados this season, but faces a reputational and commercial challenge in Europe that affects its presence on supermarket shelves.

Decisions by chains like Co-op and reservations from buyers like Aldi have highlighted how political factors transcend agriculture. For Europe, the result is a more diversified market in which Colombia, Chile, Morocco, and Spain are consolidating their position as the main beneficiaries of this situation.