The end of week 19 brought significant activity to the U.S. avocado market. Approximately 1,535 shipments were recorded, representing a 6% increase over the previous week and a 4% increase compared to the same period last year. This growth indicates a sustained pace that reinforces expectations for a promising season.

Mexico continues to dominate the market with 64% of the US market, maintaining its position as the leading supplier. It is followed by California with 22%, Peru with 8%, and Colombia with 6%. While Mexico's leadership remains strong, the most significant movements came from South America: Peru increased its volume by 30% week-over-week, as did Colombia, which also saw a 39% increase. In comparison, Mexico's growth was more moderate at 7%, while California experienced a 10% decline, feeling the pressure from its competitors.

In terms of prices, the market showed a downward trend. All sizes saw reductions, except for the smallest, size 84, which experienced a slight increase of 4%. Size 60 was the most affected with a 14% drop, confirming a trend that has now seen four consecutive weeks of decline in the larger sizes. This dynamic has narrowed the price gap between the extreme sizes: currently, the difference between the smallest and largest is $35 per 25-pound box, the narrowest recorded so far this year. In contrast, the largest difference was $57 and occurred in week eleven.

Gary Klevenger highlighted in his most recent column in Avonews that the 2025 season still holds high potential, with a projected yield of 375 million pounds, which would make it the largest Californian harvest since 2020. However, he warns that South American supplies are entering the market at lower prices, putting significant pressure on local avocado prices.

On the other hand, Sergio Paz noted that the new fruit harvest has already begun, although with destinations other than the United States. Some exporters, especially from Jalisco, have decided to get ahead of the curve. The effects of this shift on the various markets, including the domestic market, remain to be seen in the coming weeks.

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