January is a key month for avocado imports in the United States. It's the period leading up to the Super Bowl, which will be held on Sunday, February 8, 2026, at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Each year, this represents the peak consumption period in the world's largest market for this fruit. 

This year, there is a different reality than in previous seasons, with two records intersecting: the lowest prices in the last decade versus the highest volume of fruit available.

The projections are positive, particularly in Michoacán, which is on track to become the almost exclusive supplier, given the shift of the largest volumes away from Jalisco. From that state, Antonio Villaseñor, director of APEAM, told Avonews that “the second, third, and fourth weeks of January are crucial for supplying this period when consumption is at its highest of the year.”

According to figures from avocado growers in Michoacán, the available fruit will be enough to meet demand. “In the coming weeks, leading up to the Super Bowl, Mexico will be shipping around 120,000 tons, which will be consumed in the following weeks and in the "day of the event," Villaseñor explains.

According to the Aztecavo executive, a significant volume will be maintained for importers, "and the shipping volume records will surely continue to be broken." However, there would be no significant impact on price.

“I think the price will remain very stable with small variations, due to the large supply available,” Villaseñor explains.

The previous numbers

According to Avobook records, in 2025, the three weeks leading up to the Super Bowl (held in Week 6) saw weekly shipment volumes ranging from 1,900 to 1,960 tons. Between Week 4 and Week 6, 82,938 tons of avocados were shipped. After that period, volume declined considerably, dropping below 1,000 tons in Week 6, before recovering in Week 7 with just over 49,000 tons.

Tomás de la Cuadra, an analyst at Avobook, noted that, in terms of prices, 2025 was somewhat atypical, “because it was at historically high values at the beginning of the year. They began to decline as week 6 approached, but then they rose again.”

However, this season the situation is different, with prices remaining low, and no noticeable improvement is expected, even in the difference between sizes.

“This season we’ve seen a very flat price across all sizes. We’re even at a price very close to the domestic market. In previous years, we were always 30-35% higher for export fruit. I think historically this is one of the lowest prices we’ve ever seen,” Antonio Villaseñor told Avobook.