More than seven weeks into Ecuador's avocado export season, preliminary data reveals some clear signs of the country's performance, both in international and domestic markets. Beyond the volume figures, this stage confirms the effectiveness of the technical and commercial decisions made beforehand.

On the export front, it has become clear that the work carried out in the preceding months, especially throughout 2025, has had a direct impact on the stability of Ecuadorian avocado quality. The size distribution remains concentrated in medium and large sizes, a key factor for market acceptance. This is further supported by a lower proportion of fruit not exported, reflecting improved coordination between production, selection, and the market.

This performance has occurred within a unique international context. During the first few weeks, the European market experienced lower supply levels from other origins, which has allowed the fruit, even with significant volumes from Ecuador, to maintain good reception and higher prices than the previous season. The challenge will be to observe to what extent this scenario can be sustained as new origins are incorporated.

Diversifying destinations remains a central element of the strategy. While markets close to Europe, such as Russia, are being served by countries like Israel and soon South Africa, Ecuador's presence in various markets allows it to mitigate any potential supply adjustments. At the same time, Spain and Morocco are not reaching the initially projected volumes, which opens up additional opportunities in the short term.

From a production standpoint, the campaign is still in a moderate start phase. Larger export volumes have been primarily limited by dry matter content, and the unseasonably warm weather experienced in December and around week 5 has slowed fruit development. Given this scenario, February and March are expected to see the highest export volumes.

In contrast, the North American market is not currently a competitive destination. Mexico has launched with very high volumes and significantly lower prices than those seen in Europe, limiting opportunities for Ecuador, even in markets like Canada. This is compounded by the expectation of increased regional supply from Brazil and, later, Peru.

In the Ecuadorian local market, the reduced availability of non-exported fruit, coupled with weather effects, has allowed prices to remain stable even in week 5. This behavior suggests a possible new normal, where the coexistence of exports and the domestic market does not necessarily imply immediate downward pressure. In this context, Hass avocados continue to gain market share, while Fuerte avocados exhibit more fluctuating prices.

Finally, container availability remains an operational challenge for Ecuador, given the growth in exports of other products. However, advance planning and diversification of shipping lines allow the country to face this scenario with greater predictability and meet its trade commitments.

Overall, the avocado campaign in Ecuador is progressing with positive signs in quality, prices and logistical order, although in an international environment that demands constant monitoring.

Santiago Pinto
Director Iteranza
spinto@interanza.com
Ecuador