Ramón Paz: “Mexico must also grow in value.”

October 16, 2026

After decades of presence and expansion in the market, the United States continues to represent a growth opportunity for Mexican avocados. In an interview with Avobook, Dr. Ramón Paz Vega, managing director of Paz Mendoza y Asociados and an agribusiness strategic consultant, identifies opportunities to further expand avocado consumption in the United States, while emphasizing the importance of ensuring that this growth also sustains the value of the business.

“The market continues to grow. We will have to make sure it keeps growing in volume while also increasing in value,” says the consultant. His concern arises during a season of abundant supply and prices that, in his analysis, are reducing profitability for growers and marketers.

Paz projects shipments of close to 1.3 million metric tons to the United States during the 2026–2027 season. Although he considers this volume not very different from that of the previous season, his estimate points to a decrease of between 5% and 6%. At the same time, he indicates that shipments between July 1 and the end of September are estimated to have increased by 13% compared with the same period in 2025.

The Southeastern U.S. and Younger Generations as Drivers of Demand

For the director of Paz Mendoza y Asociados, the U.S. market still shows significant regional differences in avocado consumption. While the West Coast and southwestern areas such as Texas already have high purchasing levels, the executive identifies states such as Florida, Georgia, and Alabama as areas with room for growth.

“We see great consumption potential,” he says about the Southeast, highlighting opportunities to connect avocados with the region’s culinary traditions. Paz explains that Avocados From Mexico’s promotional programs target areas with lower consumption but considerable potential to increase it.

“The potential offered by younger generations, such as millennials and Generation Z, as we mentioned, lies in the fact that they are conscious consumers,” he says. The consultant identifies these groups as an opportunity to continue developing avocado demand in the United States.

In Ramón Paz’s analysis, this potential depends not only on reaching more buyers but also on preserving attributes such as flavor, ripeness, and quality.

Inelastic Demand: Why Higher Volumes Can Put Pressure on Prices

In his interview with Avobook, Paz notes that abundant supply coexists with a challenge. Lower prices do not necessarily lead to increased purchases. According to studies cited by the executive, avocado demand in the U.S. market is inelastic.

To illustrate this phenomenon, he refers to the habit of a person who consumes one avocado a day. In this case, if the price falls, that person will not necessarily increase consumption to two avocados.

“Consumers more or less consume the same amount, even when prices vary,” he summarizes. As he explains, this response makes significant price reductions necessary when trying to move more fruit: “If we have to sell more, we will have to lower the price considerably.”

Conversely, reduced availability can lead to sharp price increases if buyers try to maintain their consumption.

In this scenario, Paz points out that offering a greater volume of fruit may require substantial price reductions to encourage purchases. Conversely, when fruit availability declines and customers try to maintain their consumption, prices can rise sharply. In this way, changes in supply can trigger even greater changes in selling prices.

According to the consultant’s analysis, current prices are squeezing margins throughout the supply chain, and some smaller-scale growers are already facing losses. He also identifies the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Mexican peso as a factor affecting profits.

Paz emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between selling through discounts and building greater demand. Promotion and market development aim to increase consumption levels, something that a price reduction alone does not guarantee.

Foodservice as a Strategic Growth Opportunity

Another relevant channel in the U.S. market is foodservice, which includes restaurants, university dining facilities, and institutional food services. The executive estimates that it currently accounts for between 35% and 40% of the U.S. avocado market and believes there is still room to increase consumption.

In this context, he notes that although sizes 48 and 60 are preferred in the United States, there is also room for other fruit sizes. In foodservice, the choice depends on the needs of each establishment.

Paz also emphasizes the possibility of marketing Category 2 fruit, whose classification is based on differences in external appearance that do not necessarily affect eating quality. He explains that this channel makes it possible to use avocados with cosmetic defects that remain suitable for culinary applications.

“Foodservice is a segment that needs to be served and that I believe can continue to increase its consumption,” he maintains.

Logistics, Mutual Dependence, and the Potential of Mexico’s Domestic Market

The large share of the U.S. market in Mexican avocado exports raises questions about dependence on this destination. Paz acknowledges this concentration but believes it should be analyzed alongside logistical advantages and the relationship between the two markets.

“We are in New York within four days, straight from the orchard,” he says, illustrating Mexico’s logistical advantage. Short transit times reduce exposure to market changes during transportation and facilitate cash flow. He also highlights the possibility of placing different fruit sizes in the market: “The U.S. market absorbs all sizes, not at the same price. Some sizes are preferred, but it absorbs them all.”

“So, there is mutual dependence. We cannot unilaterally stop the flow without consequences on both sides of the border,” he says, describing both the importance of the United States to Mexican exporters and Mexico’s role in supplying the U.S. market.

Paz distinguishes between the U.S. share of Mexican exports and its share of total Mexican production, a significant portion of which is marketed domestically. “The Mexican market still has considerable room to grow,” he maintains.

To develop this potential, he proposes improving the quality offered to local consumers, strengthening promotion, and professionalizing distribution. “More professional, more sophisticated distribution, with pre-ripened fruit and all of this, would also significantly increase consumption in Mexico,” he suggests.

Shared Competition and Continuity of Supply

The consultant argues that expanding U.S. demand for avocados can benefit different suppliers. For this reason, he prefers to speak of origins supplying the same market rather than competition, although he acknowledges differences in their commercial strategies.

Regarding Peru, he highlights the integration of production, packing, and export operations among large companies. “They pack the fruit themselves and export it themselves. As a result, they can offer supermarket chains very stable supply programs,” he explains.

Paz contrasts this structure with the Mexican model: “Mexico is highly fragmented. Exporters buy fruit from growers every day.”

Nevertheless, he believes that competition does not eliminate opportunities for collaboration in developing consumption.

“Because we believe that as long as the market continues to grow as it has so far, we can all continue to grow,” he states.

Mexico also has opportunities to expand and complement its supply. Paz identifies Jalisco as a source of growth because of its production base and the orchards that have not yet joined the U.S. export program. Its earlier production season can help strengthen the continuity of Mexican supply.

To sustain this position, he returns to the attributes of Mexican avocados: adequate dry matter, proper ripening, flavor, and food safety, together with distribution practices that preserve quality until the fruit reaches consumers. Market growth and the ability to meet its needs must advance together.

“There is considerable potential for further growth,” he concludes.