CHINA ANALYSIS
Avocado shipments to China fall by 75%
China accounts for only 19 shipments (-75% week-on-week and -76% year-on-year). Peru dominates the market, and prices rise more than 20% for key sizes.
The Chinese avocado market showed a sharp adjustment in week 14, with only 19 shipments recorded. This figure represents a significant drop of 75% compared to the previous week and an even steeper decline of 76% compared to the same period last year.
At this stage, market supply is concentrated entirely in Peru, which accounts for 100% of the market. Unlike previous weeks, shipments from Chile are no longer recorded; their presence had been gradually decreasing until disappearing in this latest measurement.
The volume patterns show marked intermittency in Peruvian shipments to China. After previous weeks with high levels of arrivals, the current decline reflects an irregular dynamic that could repeat itself in the short term, making it difficult to interpret the market weekly and requiring the analysis of trends over longer timeframes.
This dependence on a single source also introduces a factor of uncertainty in the stability of supply, since any variation in shipments directly impacts the availability of the product at the destination.
In terms of prices, the market is showing a significant recovery. Sizes between 18 and 24 have seen increases of over 20%, approaching the highest levels observed so far this year. This rebound is occurring within a context of lower available volume, which is contributing to upward pressure on prices.
Thus, China is experiencing a week marked by a drop in shipments and a strong recovery in prices, in a scenario conditioned by the high concentration of supply and volatility in supply flows.
