Water will be key in the face of an uncertain climate scenario

Each season reminds us once again that in agriculture, we cannot wait for absolute certainty before beginning to make decisions. Today, as we move toward a new campaign, climate behavior once again takes center stage and forces us to look not only at what is happening in Ecuador, but also at the signals emerging in Peru, Colombia, and Chile.

Over the past few weeks, we have continued monitoring the possible evolution of El Niño. The information we are following shows a significant increase in the probability that the phenomenon will develop. However, there is still a much more relevant question for agriculture than probability alone: what its intensity will be and how it will manifest itself in each territory.

Here it is important to distinguish between El Niño behavior on a global scale and the conditions associated with coastal El Niño. The main point of uncertainty is determining to what extent both scenarios could coincide and what effects that interaction would have on the different productive areas of the region.

And that difference matters because the effects are never homogeneous. While some areas may face intense rainfall, others may experience precisely the opposite: prolonged periods of drought and lower water availability.

Ecuador is already facing signs of water stress

In Ecuador, we have been able to observe this variability directly. In some areas of the Highlands, we went practically 30 days without rainfall, creating sufficiently significant dry conditions to even favor the occurrence of fires.

Over the past few days, some moderate rainfall returned to productive areas, but this does not eliminate concern about what may happen over the coming months.

The projections we are following point to the possibility of facing dry periods again during October and November. For Ecuador, this situation has implications that go far beyond agriculture, considering our high dependence on hydroelectric power generation.

For crops, however, the immediate question is what effects this lower water availability may have already had.

It is still too early to provide estimates of possible fruit abortion or impacts on fruit size. These effects will need to be assessed later, when counting begins and we can truly determine how the trees responded.

Precisely for this reason, I believe we must be careful: the fact that we cannot yet measure the damage does not mean that we can ignore the risk.

A season that still has much to be determined

In Ecuador, there are areas that could begin with their first production during September. However, a more significant first wave should appear toward the end of November, while our main production peak continues to be concentrated in January and February.

This still gives us some room to observe climate developments and understand what volume we will have available.

There is also an important commercial consideration. As occurs in Chile, the Ecuadorian domestic market competes with export opportunities. Therefore, we will not only have to know how much we will produce, but also determine the best commercial destination for that fruit.

By September, we should have a clearer initial approximation of the volumes that could make up the November shipments.

Water will once again be a fundamental variable.

Rainfall is necessary for our production, but its effect changes completely depending on the phenological stage in which it occurs. A lack of rainfall during growth can limit fruit development, while excess water close to harvest can create new difficulties.

Therefore, the challenge is not simply to ask ourselves whether it will rain or not, but when, how much, and at what stage it will occur in each productive area.

The risk must be observed as a regional phenomenon

The situation cannot be analyzed solely from Ecuador either.

Northern Peru, for example, is already preparing for the possibility of a more complex climate scenario. There are areas there that have been experiencing changes in their phenological cycles and could encounter rainfall during sensitive stages of the campaign if different climatic conditions ultimately coincide.

Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, and Chile are moving forward with different calendars and productive realities, but they are part of the same market. What happens climatically in one of these countries may ultimately have commercial consequences for the others.

A reduction in volume from one origin, an unexpected concentration of certain fruit sizes, or a production delay can alter regional availability and, subsequently, the conditions encountered in destination markets.

Therefore, it is still too early to determine whether the scenario we are observing will ultimately be commercially positive or negative.

It is not enough to provide the available water

Given this uncertainty, there is one recommendation that I consider especially important for growers: ensure, within the possibilities of each farm, that the crop receives the water it actually needs.

There is a fundamental difference between giving the tree the water we have available and providing the water it physiologically needs.

I fully understand that under water scarcity conditions, this difference is often determined by factors beyond the grower's control. But during the fruit growth period, water stress can have significant consequences.

A lack of water can favor fruit abortion and also limit fruit filling, resulting in a greater concentration of smaller sizes.

The latter scenario deserves particular attention.

We could find ourselves in a season in which there is indeed a recovery in volume compared with a previous campaign, but where a significant proportion ends up concentrated in smaller sizes. From a production standpoint, recovering kilograms does not necessarily mean recovering the expected commercial potential.

And from the market perspective, we cannot yet anticipate the outcome either.

Typically, a high availability of small fruit sizes creates pressure because there is an abundance of those sizes. However, their commercial performance will also depend on what happens in Colombia, Peru, and Chile and on the composition of the supply that ultimately reaches the different destinations.

Preparing before we know all the answers

Over the coming weeks, we will have new information and will be able to better understand how this scenario evolves. We will also continue meeting with specialists and organizations that study the phenomenon to assess how closely coastal conditions may be related to the global evolution of El Niño.

But waiting for that answer does not mean remaining idle.

Agriculture always operates with variables that we cannot completely control. Climate is probably the most obvious of them. Our job is to identify those decisions over which we do have the ability to act.

Today, one of those decisions is efficient water management.

If we go through drier months, it will be essential to sustain fruit growth and filling. If conditions subsequently change and more intense rainfall arrives, we will have to adapt our strategies once again.

We still do not know what the definitive impact of the climate scenario taking shape will be. Nor can we quantify its possible effects on production, fruit sizes, or markets.

What we do know is that preparation must begin before those consequences become visible. Because by the time we can finally measure the damage to the tree or count the fruit that is missing, many of the decisions that could have reduced that impact should already have been made.

Santiago Pinto
Director Iteranza
spinto@interanza.com
Ecuador