Jorge Molina
Week 23: Scarce mischief
Colombia
The market remains sluggish, with projections pointing to a further reduction in available crop volumes. We continue to observe some changes in size distribution, increasingly resembling Colombia's traditional composition, with a predominance of medium and small sizes. Currently, small sizes represent approximately 40% of the supply, medium sizes 50%, and large sizes just 10%.
Regarding purchase prices for fully certified fruit, the average is around $3,000 per kilogram. Larger sizes are now being bought for around $5,000, medium sizes for about $3,000, and small sizes for around $2,100. It is precisely these latter sizes that have been one of the surprises of recent weeks, as they have reappeared strongly in purchase offers and at price levels that seemed unlikely just a few months ago.
The exchange rate also doesn't seem to be helping export activity much. Week after week, it continues to show a downward trend of around 3%, affecting the competitiveness of the export business. Even so, demand for small sizes, or "babies," is registering increases of around 11%, while medium sizes are showing increases of 6%. Conversely, large sizes reflect a decrease of around 5%.
On the export front, we continue to see shipments of around 50 containers per week, of which approximately 65% are destined for Europe. Prices there remain far from ideal, while the sector anticipates that the US market will gain some momentum in the coming weeks. At the same time, we are closely monitoring various developments in Mexico, where some price movements appear to be driven more by speculation than by actual changes in fruit availability.
In the fields, the weather continues to exhibit the pattern known in Colombia as "entreveradito": intermittent rains interspersed with periods of sunshine. Fruit remains scarce, and each week the competition among processors, the domestic market, and exporters to ensure supply to various destinations becomes more evident.
Projections indicate that volumes will continue to decline over the next six weeks. Supply remains limited, and all indications suggest this condition will persist for much of the short term. It's worth noting that, at this same time last year, Colombia exported nearly three times the current volume. This helps explain the approximately 30% reduction in the country's year-to-date exports, while some estimates even suggest the decline in the off-season harvest could approach 60%.
We will continue to closely monitor market behavior, but especially the signs that are already beginning to emerge for the main 2026-2027 harvest. What happens in the coming months will not only define the end of this marketing year, but will also begin to set the course for the next major season for Colombian avocados.
See you next week.
Jorge Molina Duque
Operations Manager, Quality Studio CO
jorge.molina@qualitystudio.cl
Colombia
