We continue to watch the bullfights from the sidelines, as if they originated in Colombia.

Little by little, what we've been reporting for several weeks is becoming a reality: fruit is scarcer than usual at the Colombian source, and the numbers are starting to speak for themselves. This week, approximately 50 containers are projected to leave the country's main exporters. Of that volume, about 65% is destined for Europe and 35% for the United States. Compared to the same week last year, when approximately 130 containers left, this represents a decrease of nearly 60%. What's most interesting is that just a year ago, the situation was completely different: about 80% of Colombian fruit was being shipped to the United States and the remainder to Europe. Today, the market paints a different picture.

In the fields, more and more proposals are emerging that are focused on the US market, although that doesn't necessarily mean all the fruit will end up there exclusively. Rather, it seems the market is beginning to operate under a much more tactical logic, where buyers are looking to keep different options open while carefully monitoring what's happening at the destination and the arrival of Peruvian fruit.

And currencies continue to add volatility to the situation. The dollar continues its constant up-and-down behavior, and this week it was the euro's turn, where we saw declines of nearly 3% week-over-week. This naturally puts pressure on margins and forces traders to recalculate their positions.

The distribution of fruit sizes remains relatively stable. Large sizes represent approximately 10% of the market share, medium sizes 50%, and small sizes 40%. Offers observed during the week yield a weighted average of approximately 2,950 pesos per kilo for fully certified fruit. Large sizes are being purchased for around 5,000 pesos, medium sizes for around 2,500 pesos, and small sizes for around 1,500 pesos. And this is precisely where one of the biggest challenges for the European market continues: finding a profitable outlet for small sizes amidst a consumption that has yet to accelerate at the expected pace.

As for the weather, the countryside has been responding relatively well thanks to the combination of rain and heat, although a predominance of heat is beginning to be felt, which is increasingly reminiscent of the arrival of the Super Niño phenomenon.

News continues to emerge regarding the development of the processed Hass avocado market. There is some fruit available for this segment, and this alternative is gradually gaining traction within the industry. Perhaps a significant part of the sector's future is being quietly built there: opening up more commercial avenues for a fruit that doesn't always find its ideal market in the fresh market.

This week we've already seen prices in the US markets begin to surpass those in Europe, which is once again driving trade talks and drawing the attention of many players in the supply chain. We continue to closely monitor the performance of the 2026 crop, fruit exports, the domestic market, and the activity of processors of our beloved Hass avocados. #AvocadosFromColombia

As always, we end by reminding everyone that it all starts with quality. Because in a market where currencies, destinations, and numbers change week after week, quality remains the only language everyone understands.

See you next week, hoping for better news for the sector and the country with the upcoming presidential elections. Have a good week, everyone.

Jorge Molina Duque
Operations Manager, Quality Studio CO
jorge.molina@qualitystudio.cl
Colombia