Week 47 arrives with an unusual outlook for avocado production in Ecuador. What in other years would have been a period of clear definitions—regarding the progression of the stages, the optimal harvest time, and the stability of the local market—is now marked by delays, climate variability, and a trade agenda fraught with uncertainty, especially with regard to the United States, one of the strategic destinations that the country has yet to fully open.

On the farms, the development of the crop stages has become the main focus of attention. Dry matter accumulation is slower than normal due to a much rainier November than expected. This combination is hindering ripening and disrupting the initial planning: what was projected as a possible start to the season between weeks 49 and 50 is no longer feasible. Everything indicates that the Ecuadorian harvest will not begin until week 2 of next year. For a country building its export position, these shifts are significant: they affect available supply, trade agreements, and Ecuador's ability to capitalize on competitive opportunities.

The other atypical element is the behavior of the production curve. Normally, by April the first flowering has already completed its cycle and the country practically ceases production. But this year, fruit is expected to be available in April and May, a change that coincides with Peru's exit from the market. This could become an opportunity—if managed well—but it also requires more detailed planning, because a variation in the harvest months has a direct impact on volumes, logistics, and prices.

Domestically, the signs also point to an unusual year. As the year draws to a close, the price of Hass avocados typically tends to decline; however, the relative scarcity of fruit is keeping prices high. In contrast, the Fuerte avocado has followed a completely different trend: local prices have fallen, and international prices do not justify exporting. What is striking is the early onset of this drop: what normally occurs in the second or third week of January happened as early as week 44, indicating early market pressure.

But the strategic issue that should most concern the sector today is the situation with the United States. Last week there were developments regarding tariff negotiations. Ecuador, as a key trading partner, has been subject to reviews following the implementation of tariffs of 10% and 15%. The news that the country may be exempt on several products is positive, but insufficient on its own. For Ecuadorian avocados, any tariff benefit needs to be accompanied by a phytosanitary component. And therein lies the critical point: the protocol with APHIS has not yet been finalized.

Without that approval, there is no real possibility of entering the U.S. market, regardless of tariff conditions. The Ecuadorian industry has been working on this front for months, but there is still no final resolution. This serves as a reminder that opening a market involves constant technical and diplomatic work, and that both processes must advance in parallel.

In short, Ecuador faces a year-end filled with challenges but also with valuable lessons. The weather is disrupting ripening, production is shifting to unusual months, prices are behaving erratically, and the country is still awaiting the phytosanitary approval that would grant it access to the world's largest market. In a competitive global context, these signs must be interpreted clearly: Ecuador is in a transitional phase in its avocado industry, where every decision—from the farm to international negotiations—can define its future position.

Santiago Pinto, Director, Iteranza, spinto@interanza.com , Ecuador