The current landscape of Ecuador's agricultural export sector, especially regarding avocado farms and commercial development, marks a turning point that cannot be ignored. Recent news concerning the state of the crops, the close of the 2024-2025 season, and the imminent inspection visit by IPHIS (a key phytosanitary agency for accessing the US market) place us at a juncture full of challenges, but also of great opportunities.

From an agronomic perspective, a very positive phenomenon is evident: a potential increase in production, estimated at between 30% and 40% compared to the last season. This growth is not accidental; it is the result of both the addition of new hectares that will begin their first harvest in the 2025-2026 season, and the residual effect of the El Niño phenomenon, which this time has brought more favorable than detrimental climatic conditions.

The shift in seasonality also brings with it adjustments to production schedules. The late start of the dry season has moved the peak production period from December to March. While this requires significant logistical and operational adaptation, it also opens up the possibility of taking advantage of strategic market windows, where international supply is lower and prices could be more favorable for Ecuadorian producers.

The official close of the 2024-2025 season has yielded several lessons. An atypical flowering resulted in an unusually high yield, extending the season until the end of July—something unprecedented for the sector. While this phenomenon disrupted initial projections, it also tested the responsiveness and flexibility of the entire commercial and logistical operation. It was a season that pushed us out of our comfort zone and compels us to rethink future strategies in the face of increasingly unpredictable weather events.

The US market: on the cusp of a new era

The scheduled IPHIS visit between August 5th and 8th could be the most significant turning point in the sector's recent history. It is, quite literally, the key that would unlock the door to the US market for our products. This would be the third attempt to carry out this inspection, and all indications are that it will finally be successful. The visits to the production areas and packing facilities will be crucial in determining the phytosanitary approval.

This process not only represents a business opportunity, but also a technical and sanitary validation that would position Ecuador as a serious and competitive player in the global avocado market. The support of recent trade agreements with Canada, those in the process of being signed with Korea, and negotiations with Japan will lead to the next step: the signing of phytosanitary protocols with the respective countries, further reinforcing the country's strategic position in international trade.

We are at a crucial juncture, where technical expertise in the field, commercial resilience in the face of changing conditions, and health diplomacy—which could catapult our exports—are all intertwined. The important thing now is to maintain focus, remain vigilant, and continue building upon a production chain that has proven its ability to meet challenges. The opening of the US market is not the end of the road, but rather the beginning of a new stage that demands sustained excellence and a long-term vision.

Santiago Pinto, Director, Iteranza, spinto@interanza.com , Ecuador