For our agriculture, August has always been synonymous with drought. Between July and October, high temperatures and a lack of rain define a pattern that producers know by heart. However, this year nature has decided to write a different story: sunny days interspersed with cloudy and even rainy days in the highlands. An unusual scenario that, far from generating immediate alarm, is providing an atypical water availability for this time of year.

This climate change, which breaks with tradition, opens up two possible interpretations. On the one hand, a season with less water stress and a flowering period that promises to sustain a 30 to 40% increase in production compared to the 2024-2025 season. On the other hand, there is uncertainty as to whether the dry season has simply shortened or shifted in timing, something we will only be able to confirm in the coming weeks. If the trend points to a shorter dry season, projections could even exceed 40%, an optimistic scenario that will continue to be evaluated step by step.

But the abundance of rain at an unusual time brings not only benefits: it also alters the phytosanitary dynamics. Some pests, which normally appear months later, could emerge earlier, requiring more rigorous monitoring to safeguard fruit quality. And speaking of quality, everything points to a change in the size mix. After a season in which small and medium sizes represented up to 90% of production, it is now projected that large sizes could reach 35%, marking a significant shift in supply.

Alongside these agronomic variables, the sector is experiencing a crucial phytosanitary and commercial moment. The recent visit by AFIS, from August 5th to 8th, marked a milestone in the process of opening the US market. Through field visits and tours of collection centers, the aim was to evaluate crop conditions and packaging. Although Ecuador is no stranger to this type of inspection—the United States is already a key destination for other products—this visit represents a unique opportunity: to enter very specific market windows during the North American winter months when the domestic supply from California and Florida is limited, without creating tension with the large, established suppliers.

Now, all eyes are on the first official report, which should arrive in the coming weeks. The global context, with its changes in foreign trade and geopolitics, could accelerate or delay the process, but the sector's commitment is clear: to adapt, improve, and be ready to compete.

Today, more than ever, the future of agriculture is defined not only by the plots of land, but also by the ability to read climate changes, anticipate health challenges, and take advantage of market opportunities that are knocking at the door.

Santiago Pinto, Director, Iteranza, spinto@interanza.com , Ecuador