Entering week 11 of the trading calendar, the avocado campaign in Ecuador is nearing its end. Approximately five or six weeks remain to complete the cycle, which, in business terms, equates to the final sprint of the season. It is at this stage that the year's results begin to take shape, and the market reveals more clearly which factors ultimately defined the campaign.

Overall, the season has been positive for the Ecuadorian fruit sector. Prices have remained stable for much of the period, a key factor for an industry heavily reliant on international market dynamics. This is further bolstered by an improvement in the percentage of exportable fruit, a fundamental indicator for the business's profitability. While the sector has not yet reached its desired levels, the trend has been favorable.

One of the factors that has contributed to the campaign's success has been the continuation of positive price trends. Typically, the risk of steeper price drops begins to emerge around February. However, this year the market has shown greater stability, and the prices observed in January and February have extended into March, potentially remaining stable until weeks 13 or 14. For Ecuadorian exporters, this shift in the price cycle has meant operating with a wider profit margin in the final part of the campaign.

However, the avocado business is not isolated from global events. The geopolitical tensions of recent weeks—especially the situation between Iran and the United States—have introduced some uncertainty into certain markets. In particular, a slowdown in demand has been observed in Europe, a key destination for some of the fruit exported from Ecuador.

Adding to this scenario is Peru's gradual entry into the international market, which is beginning to generate significant volumes just as other campaigns are nearing their end. This overlap in timing has slowed the pace of sales in some destinations and has forced Ecuadorian exporters to strengthen their market diversification strategy, an increasingly necessary tool in a business that grows more competitive year after year.

Despite these adjustments, the campaign is projected to close in April with a relatively favorable outlook. Some sales opportunities may even emerge during May and June, due to delays in the release of Peruvian production and the timing of its export calendar. These windows, although limited, could generate interesting market opportunities.

Meanwhile, the Ecuadorian industry is already looking ahead to the next production cycle. This period coincides with the appearance of the main blooms for the upcoming season, marking the beginning of a new agricultural process. In this context, initial signs point to a correction in the production cycle that could result in a significant volume for the 2026–2027 season, which would begin in October 2026 and extend approximately until weeks 12 to 14 of the following year.

Added to this is another element that is beginning to gain relevance: the local market. In Ecuador, consumer perception of Fuerte avocados has been evolving, which raises expectations for their positioning during the first half of the year. This change in consumption patterns could become an interesting complement to the sector's commercial strategy.

In short, the conclusion of this season confirms something the sector already knows well: the Ecuadorian avocado business is heavily influenced by external variables, from geopolitics to the dynamics of global production calendars. But it also demonstrates a growing capacity for adaptation, supported by market diversification, improvements in export quality, and greater commercial flexibility.

The final sprint of the campaign not only marks the end of the current season, but also the point from which the strategy for the next cycle for Ecuadorian avocados in the international market begins to take shape.

Santiago Pinto
Director Iteranza
spinto@interanza.com
Ecuador