Ecuador's avocado export season is now in its seventh or eighth week, showing encouraging signs, though not without some nuances. Fruit quality has consistently improved compared to previous seasons: better sizes, less damage, and timely arrival in international markets. In a scenario where other origins haven't exerted strong pressure, prices have held steady in recent weeks, allowing for orderly sales, especially in Europe.

However, the current situation also leaves a sense of missed opportunity. In other seasons, Ecuador would have had a stronger start in these initial weeks. This time, with six weeks of slower activity, the traditional January peak has shifted to February or March. The market has responded, yes, but the industry acknowledges that it would have liked to have had a higher volume to better capitalize on the trading window.

The European market has once again been the mainstay of the campaign. The relative absence of other competitors helped maintain firm prices and allowed for a smooth market entry. However, the outlook is beginning to become more complex.

Chile has already launched its campaign in both Europe and nearby Latin American markets, which limits Ecuador's initial entry into those regional destinations. Peru, although not yet fully operational, maintains a presence and is generating anticipation for what might happen from week 10 onward. The current situation, therefore, demands attention and a proactive approach.

Ecuador is confident that its peak production in February and March will allow it to maintain its leading position. But the fundamental question is how it will adapt when major producers increase their volume and put pressure on the market.

One of the most striking aspects of this season is the range of sizes. Medium and large sizes predominate, while small sizes are unusually scarce. This shortage has kept prices for small sizes at levels not typically seen at this time of year, despite the low volume available.

The situation is not only impacting exports. In the local market, where consumption of small-sized avocados is high—along with some medium-sized ones—the shortage has been completely unusual for these months. This has forced consumption to shift towards medium and large sizes, maintaining prices as if the country were not in the middle of its export season. It is a new phenomenon that also reveals greater domestic demand for Hass avocados, a relatively recent variety in local consumption, which has historically been more concentrated in green-skinned avocados.

As for the green-skinned variety, there are also some unique aspects. Traditionally, exports were concentrated until December, but this year, increased production and certain window periods in Europe extended the season. However, a series of weekly rains has slowed the harvest, especially for the Fuerte variety, which is more difficult to harvest in the rain than the Hass. The result is a market where demand exists, but one variety faces size limitations and the other is affected by weather conditions.

This is how Ecuador is sailing with favorable winds: solid quality, stable prices, and a receptive Europe. But the immediate horizon—marked by the increased presence of Chile and Peru, and the imminent departure of the largest origins by April—requires a cautious approach. The key will be to identify and capitalize on the remaining commercial opportunities before the international market becomes more competitive.

Santiago Pinto
Director Iteranza
spinto@interanza.com
Ecuador