These days, as the calendar marks week 44, the Ecuadorian avocado sector is preparing for the start of a new season with encouraging signs, but also with challenges that demand planning and business acumen. The northern highlands, the first to advance in the production process, are already reporting dry matter counts and monitoring, and the first export shipments are expected to be ready between weeks 49 and 50, that is, at the beginning of December.

The technical data is relevant: achieving a dry matter content of 23% is essential to guarantee the quality of Hass avocados for export. However, the timing isn't ideal. In December, the European market typically slows down due to the end-of-year holidays, which could limit sales opportunities in that market. Even so, some buyers remain interested in receiving the first shipments, opening up space for selective and strategic transactions.

Domestically, the situation is different. Hass avocado prices remain high due to limited supply, while the Fuerte variety is available in good volume and its prices are trending downward. This adjustment could balance the scales and allow exported fruit to find its natural path to foreign markets without direct competition from local consumption.

The weather, meanwhile, is offering a respite. October has brought generous rainfall, the most abundant in the last three years, a positive change after seasons marked by water stress. This new scenario will favor larger fruit and more attractive sizes, improving export prospects for February and March.

But perhaps the most critical point lies in logistics. The challenge of moving fruit on time in a context of high demand for refrigerated containers requires proactive planning. Ecuador, with its strong export calendar—shrimp, bananas, flowers—enters a period of peak logistical pressure between January and February. In response, companies like Interanza have taken precautions, securing cargo space weeks in advance to remain competitive.

The international landscape adds more pieces to the board: Chile, Morocco, and now Colombia are entering the market strongly, which will increase competition and demand smart business decisions, both in terms of destination and shipping times.

In short, Ecuador enters the campaign with good rainfall, developing fruit, and logistical challenges to overcome. This scenario presents both opportunities and obstacles. How well the country manages this synchronization between the fields, the market, and logistics will determine whether it maintains its pace in the global Hass and Fuerte avocado race.

Santiago Pinto, Director, Iteranza, spinto@interanza.com , Ecuador