Some campaigns begin with a bang, others with caution, and some, like the one Ecuador is launching, with signs that compel us to look beyond the initial shipments. The start of this season not only marks the natural progression of the calendar; it also marks a turning point for a region seeking to rediscover its best form after several challenging periods.

The early harvest in the north-central region has already allowed for the first shipments. Volumes are not yet large—as is typical for the first thinning—but they are sufficient to reveal what truly matters at this stage: the recovery in fruit size. After a year dominated by small fruit and with medium sizes making up the bulk of the supply, 2025 shows a long-awaited correction. Large sizes have doubled their share and could represent nearly 30% of exportable fruit. This is no small detail. No origin can aspire to international prominence if it does not guarantee sizes that generate economic value and brand consistency.

Paradoxically, this progress is occurring within a context of lower overall volume. The good news is that, even with fewer kilos, there is less non-exportable waste. The less favorable aspect of the situation lies in the domestic market, where prices remain at levels not seen in four years. This creates an unavoidable tension: an attractive domestic market can tempt many producers and limit export availability. This competition among destinations is rarely mentioned in official discourse, but it silently shapes the reality of the critical weeks of each season. Ecuador will have to manage this pressure with surgical precision if it wants to maintain a stable export curve.

Adding to the local complexity is an international perspective that requires less enthusiasm and more clarity. November was an uncomfortable month for prices across several origins, partly because seasonality once again differentiated prices by country more sharply than usual. Chile pushed significant volumes to Europe and will maintain a presence into early 2026, just as Ecuador enters the market more regularly. While a recovery in Hass prices is expected toward the end of the year, markets no longer react solely to available supply, but rather to each origin's ability to sustain its value proposition beyond price.

Europe will once again be the decisive market for Ecuador. But it won't be an easy market. The Ecuadorian window potentially extends until week 20 or 22, coinciding almost entirely with the Peruvian market's exit. This seasonal overlap, as well-known as it is inevitable, demands strategy more than luck. Placing fruit in Europe during this period is a test of commercial discipline: it requires rotation, reading the market signals, and decisiveness to avoid oversupply in weeks when every mistake is quickly punished.

Meanwhile, Ecuador is preparing for key GRASP and Rainforest Alliance audits of its group of partner farms. This may seem like a simple administrative matter, but in 2025-2026 it's much more than that. Competitiveness is no longer defined solely by size and price; today it also depends on the ability to demonstrate social and environmental responsibility with concrete evidence, not just promises. Certifications not only open markets: they protect reputations. And in a fiercely competitive environment, reputation can be the difference between being a viable option and simply an alternative.

But the most significant aspect of this start isn't in the first few weeks, but rather what it anticipates for 2026-2027. With the phenological cycle returning to equilibrium and healthier fruit sizes, Ecuador is preparing for what could be its best season in five years. This isn't a complacent prediction, but rather the logical consequence of a region that has been correcting overstocking, adjusting management practices, and learning from seasons in which supply exceeded the market's actual capacity.

If this campaign's start makes one thing clear, it's that Ecuador faces an opportunity it cannot underestimate. It has fruit more aligned with commercial standards, an international market regaining some equilibrium, and a production cycle that seems to be aligning itself. But it also faces more sophisticated competition, a domestic market enticing with high prices, and a schedule that doesn't allow for improvisation.

The season starts well, but not brilliantly. And perhaps that's the best possible starting point: a scenario that inspires ambition but demands discipline. If Ecuador manages this tension well, the 2026-2027 campaign won't just be a good year; it will be the year in which the nation finally proves that quality, rather than volume, is its true path to growth.

Santiago Pinto
Director Iteranza
spinto@interanza.com
Ecuador