2025 has brought a challenging scenario for the European avocado market. While consumption continues to grow in virtually all markets across the continent, the first four months of the year have revealed significant tensions between available supply and the market's capacity to absorb it.

Climatic factors, adjustments to production schedules, and new commercial strategies by exporting countries have transformed import flows and put pressure on the price structure. Three key voices in the sector analyze this situation: Carlos Ocaña, Avocado Product Manager at Hermanos Fernández – Grupo Orsero; Víctor Ruete, advisor at Tropical Millenium; and Annabel Könst, Purchasing Manager for Central Europe at Westfalia Fruit.

A start to the year marked by anticipation and the weather

2025 began with unusual pressure on the European market. The early arrival of fruit from Mediterranean origins such as Morocco, Spain, and Israel set the tone. Carlos Ocaña describes it as a phenomenon that disrupted the expected schedule: “The first months of the year in Europe were marked by large volumes from Spain, Morocco, and Israel, which delayed imports from both Colombia and Peru until the end of the Mediterranean season began to come into view.”

However, the situation changed dramatically with the intense rains that hit southern Europe. “A month of consecutive rain accelerated both the Spanish and Moroccan seasons, and gave Peru a very good sales period in March and April,” Ocaña adds, emphasizing how the weather redistributed opportunities on the shelves.

Víctor Ruete agrees that this start was unusual. “Europe experienced a different winter season than in previous years, marked by an early supply from Mediterranean sources, especially Morocco, which began shipping fruit from the end of November.” This was compounded by an increase in Spanish production, fueled by new plantings and favorable conditions, while Chile lost ground due to weak demand and the late arrival of its fruit.

While the first few months of the year offered promising trading opportunities, the market soon entered a spiral of oversupply. “The year began with pessimism regarding prices, given the lower quality coming from Morocco as well as the excess volume,” recalls Ocaña. However, the reduction in available fruit after the rains generated a temporary recovery: “After the rains, a window of opportunity opened up with very high prices across all sizes, especially for high-quality Peruvian fruit.”

Annabel Könst, from her perspective in Central Europe, draws a clear line in the evolution: “We saw how the market collapsed in February with the coinciding peak production in Morocco, Israel, and Colombia. Then, in March, the market dried up quickly due to rains in Spain and delays in South Africa and Peru.” This created a space of high demand and stronger prices, albeit short-lived.

Today, everyone agrees that the trend is downward. “The European market is being overloaded with Peruvian exports, and prices are falling rapidly. We can estimate that in a few weeks we will be at worrying price levels,” warns Ocaña. Ruete shares this view: “Price expectations are downward. The uncertainty lies in where the floor will be. The real challenge is to avoid the accumulation of inventories that affect quality due to aging.”

Könst adds a relevant nuance: although prices have fallen, “they are still above previous years’ levels, albeit with fewer promotions in supermarkets and a more crowded market.” Looking ahead to the coming weeks, he anticipates a decrease in Peruvian supply as northern producers finish their harvest, which could open the door to some market recovery toward the end of June.

Colombia and Peru: Intertwined Strategies on a Global Board

Against this backdrop, Colombia's export strategy has begun to reshape itself, prioritizing the US market. Víctor Ruete explains that, while this restructuring hasn't yet had a significant impact in Europe, it could have implications: “Many farms and packing plants still lack USDA certification, so a portion of the volume continues to go to Europe. The real test will come when Peru's sizing curve shifts and reduces its supply of smaller sizes.”

Annabel Könst offers a complementary perspective: “Last year, Peru competed with Colombia in medium and small sizes. This year, Peru is focusing more on large sizes, which has reopened space for Colombian fruit in Europe.” Although she acknowledges that the current surge is not as strong as in previous years, she anticipates that Colombia will continue to play an important role in the coming weeks.

Peru currently dominates the supply with over 70% of the volume in circulation. “The challenge lies with the Peruvian industry and its ability to properly manage its shipments,” warns Ruete. Market behavior will largely depend on how well it handles this concentration of supply without saturating the distribution channels.

One of the most complex logistical challenges in Europe is managing fruit sizes. Ocaña observes a significant change in demand patterns: “The difficulty used to be finding fruit in sizes 14-16, but now there is a trend in Mediterranean countries towards medium sizes such as 18-20-22. This is worrying because larger sizes are being left out of many programs.”

Ruete elaborates on this evolution: “In Europe, the 18-gauge is the equivalent of the .48 in the US and has become the most sought-after. There is room for the entire range of calibers, but the challenge is to maintain a balance that avoids overstocking that puts downward pressure on prices.”

Annabel Könst offers an integrated view: “In Central Europe, the most commercially successful sizes are 16-22; in the south, 14-16 are preferred, and in Scandinavia, smaller sizes like 24/26 are more common. This combination allows us to make the most of the entire tree,” she points out.

Despite this year's challenges, avocado consumption growth in Europe remains remarkable. Germany has solidified its position as the leading importing market, surpassing France with an estimated consumption of 165 million kilos in 2024. "Italy has also shown strong growth, shifting from consuming Hass only in the north to doing so throughout the country," Ruete points out. Könst also mentions the continued progress in Eastern Europe, where the Hass variety continues to gain ground against green-skinned varieties.

In terms of production, Morocco is positioning itself as an increasingly important player. “It is a key ally for maintaining supply from December to April,” Ocaña points out, although he warns that quality standards still need improvement and speculation needs to be reduced. Könst emphasizes that “Morocco already represents between 35 and 40% of the market during peak season, and is gaining competitiveness with prices between 10 and 20% lower than those in Spain.” With young plantations coming into production, its role will grow even more in the coming years.