Avobook spoke with Antonio Villaseñor, director of Aztecavo, right in the middle of its main season, which has yielded smaller calibers, impacting the total projected tonnage, compared to a regular campaign

Mexico is the world's largest producer of avocados. That hasn't changed and isn't likely to. However, an analysis of the 2024-25 season's figures reveals several unique aspects that make this season different, with fewer tons of fruit compared to a typical period when production can reach 1,400,000 tons, 85% of which is exported to the United States.

The main reason is the size of the fruit, as the orchards are yielding the same number of units, but mostly smaller, due to the lack of rain that affected this production.

This is how Antonio Villaseñor, director of Aztecavo and frequent columnist for Avobook, explains it, acknowledging that "this season has been very different from previous ones."

“We’ve encountered unusually large sizes, not typical for our fields, and at one point we thought things might improve. However, throughout the season, we’ve seen that smaller sizes continue to prevail. Normally, our peak size is calibers 48 and 60, and this season we’re seeing it’s more around 60 and 70, generally speaking, in the orchards at harvest time,” he explains to Avobook.

For this reason, it has been more difficult to supply the market adequately, and this has had an impact on prices, with an unprecedented difference between sizes.

“We’ve had a very significant price difference. For example, the difference between a size 48 and a size 60 reached $20 or $25, when normally the difference is only $5 to $10 at most, in the 25-pound box, which is the standard size in the United States,” Villaseñor explains.

Projected tonnage from now until June

The Mexican season runs from July to June. For the 2024-25 season, an estimated 1,300,000 tons were projected. Currently, production is at approximately 50% of that estimate.

“We are currently harvesting around 700,000 tons, and there are about 600,000 more that will be distributed over the remaining weeks until the end of June. That gives us around 30,000 tons of harvest per week,” Villaseñor explains.

Of that volume, around 15 or 20 percent remains in the local market. The rest goes to the United States, so projections indicated approximately 1,200,000 total tons shipped to that country.

“Now we are seeing if those estimates hold true,” says the director of Aztecavo, who notes that shipments will fluctuate.

“The 30,000 tons per week are calculated assuming everything is uniform. But there will be very busy weeks, like those around the Super Bowl, and there will be very slow weeks, like the Easter holidays, which here in Mexico are practically vacations and everyone closes. That will be the lowest point of what remains,” he explains.

Prices compensate for the decrease in tonnage

Current estimates project an 11% decrease compared to last season. In terms of exported tonnage, the difference will be around 5%.

However, the situation is reversed when it comes to producer prices: “We’ve seen a significant difference this year so far this season, which began in July. The average price has likely been double that of last year. This is especially true for larger sizes, which have fetched a much higher price compared to last season. So, while the orchards have yielded less, the price for producers has been much better.”

“In some ways, the price has compensated the producer for the lack of tonnage in some cases,” he explains.

The outlook regarding fruit size doesn't appear to be changing between now and June. In fact, Villaseñor says, “At first we thought it would be temporary and that we would see an improvement in sizes, but in the end, we're still in the same situation, and we'll see if we can get better sizes in the cooler months or if we'll definitely end the season with medium-sized fruit. And that will obviously have an impact on the market, as we've already seen.”

For this reason, a slight fruit shortage is expected in Mexico between now and May or June. The gap would be filled by California's production, which—according to Villaseñor—"is having a very good harvest."

“We have to wait and see how much the winds and fires in some areas affect them, but everything suggests that it will take part of the market that Mexico normally supplies,” he tells Avobook.

Crops improve for the Super Bowl

Given this context, it remains to be seen how the high demand for avocados from the United States will be addressed for Super Bowl week, which is historically the highest of the season.

“It’s going to be a very important challenge,” Villaseñor acknowledges, especially because the shortage of large calibers is making promotion by large distributors more complex.

“Perhaps retailers will have to lower their margins a bit,” says Antonio Villaseñor.

What improves the outlook is the improvement in harvests during the first weeks of January.

“The last two weeks of December were very slow, partly due to shortages and partly because many people went on vacation. The first week of January improved, and this week was very good. Next week should be very strong, and the following week as well. And shipments for the Super Bowl are starting now. So we'll see how much inventory increases and how much sales increase, to balance supply and demand,” concludes the director of Aztecavo.