First, let's review some important information:

• A month of extremes: From week 31 to 34, the market experienced high stock levels and low prices. Week 35 saw a significant rebound.
• 4 kg (cal. 20/22): from RMB 30–40 for heirloom fruit to RMB 60–75 for branded and RMB 90–100 for premium (S31); month close with peaks of RMB 120 (S35).
• 10 kg (cal. 26/28): greater resilience for most of the month (BMR 140–170) and peak BMR 240 at the end (S35).
• Key factor: inventory buildup at large receivers —including fruit from previous shipments— which put downward pressure on prices; when the stock was cleared, prices reacted positively.
• Logistics: 0 departures in S31 due to delay of CSCL WINTER (departed on Wednesday of S32); then moderate and regular departures.

Market evolution (week by week)

Week 31. The market held RMB 60–90/100 for 4 kg premium smooth-skin boxes; good-quality branded boxes averaged RMB 60. There was very little supply of generic boxes. 10 kg baskets ranged between RMB 160–170. There were no departures from Peru due to the delay of CSCL WINTER (rescheduled for mid-week 32).

Week 32. The price dispersion by inventory became apparent: older fruit from large exporters at RMB 30–40; new, branded containers around RMB 60–65; premium fruit reaching up to RMB 75. 10 kg baskets held steady at RMB 140–145. High stock levels—including leftover cargo from previous shipments—prevented any further price increases. Departures: 42 containers.

Week 33. The market remained consistent: 4 kg for RMB 30–75 and 10 kg for RMB 140–145. Considerable stock levels persisted. Shipments: 29 containers.

Week 34. The operation was consolidated at two speeds: older stocks being liquidated at RMB 30–40 and new, higher-quality shipments at RMB 60–70. 10 kg crates ranged from RMB 80–140 depending on freshness, brand, and pulp quality. Shipments: 28 containers.

Week 35. With the inventory clearing, the market rebounded strongly. Four-kilogram boxes rose from RMB 30 at the beginning of the week to RMB 120 at the close. Ten-kilogram baskets climbed from RMB 80 to RMB 240. The supply mix improved (more new fruit), and prices responded accordingly.

What explains the behavior of August

1) The held stock prevents prices from increasing. Old stocks held by large receivers pushed prices down to RMB 30–40, even though new arrivals justified RMB 60–75 (brand) and even RMB 90–100 (premium).

2) The 10 kg boxes acted as a shock absorber. The 10 kg format maintained better flow and price (140–170 for most of the month), and led at the close (up to RMB 240).

3) Quality, brand and smooth leather support the best prices. The best market prices were only obtained when a well-known brand and smooth skin were combined. Generic fruit, even without chilling damage, lagged behind presentations with a better value proposition.

4) Shipping timing is margin. The absence of departures in S31 and the decrease in quantity in S32–S34 allowed the market to recover prices once the stock was cleared. Avoiding arrival collisions remains critical.

Ạndré Vargas Global Procurement Manager South American Express Co Commercial Director at Fruwer Produce LLC avargas@fruwer.com