December ended with a somewhat challenging scenario for Hass avocados in China, marked by declining prices, limited consumer attention, and competition from other countries. As is typical during this period, the Chilean cherry season once again absorbed a significant portion of the market's purchasing power, relegating avocados to a secondary position in terms of turnover and visibility.

This seasonal factor was compounded by an active presence of Chilean fruit and local Chinese production, creating an oversupply environment that put pressure on prices for much of the month.

Price evolution during the month

December began with already weakened levels. In week 48, prices ranged between RMB 80–85 for 4 kg boxes and RMB 150–160 for 10 kg boxes, with 38 containers shipped from Peru, a significant volume considering the demand context.

In week 49, the market showed a new correction:

• 4 kg: RMB 70–80
• 10 kg: RMB 150–170

Peruvian exports fell to 16 containers, reflecting an initial sign of caution from exporters.

Week 50 marked one of the lowest points of the month. Prices fell to:

• 4 kg: RMB 50–70
• 10 kg: RMB 120–150

with only 5 containers shipped from Peru, confirming that the market did not offer attractive conditions for new shipments.

In week 51, a slight technical recovery was observed:

• 4 kg: RMB 65–70
• 10 kg: around RMB 140

Outflows increased slightly to 14 containers, although the movement remained slow.

Week 52 showed further weakness, especially in the 4 kg format:

• 4 kg: RMB 50–65
• 10 kg: RMB 140–150

with 12 containers leaving from Peru.

Finally, in week 1, the market showed a clear price rebound, supported by less supply pressure:

• 4 kg: RMB 80–100
• 10 kg: RMB 160–190

Key factors that explain the month's performance

1. Absolute dominance of the Chilean cherry

December reaffirmed that, during the peak cherry season, Hass avocados lose ground. Market share, retail space, and consumer attention are concentrated almost exclusively on this product, drastically reducing avocado turnover.

2. Simultaneous presence of Chile and China

The availability of Chilean fruit and local Chinese production amplified price pressure. In this context, Peruvian avocados faced difficulties differentiating themselves, especially in the mid-range and generic segments.

3. Defensive adjustment by Peruvian exporters

The progressive decline in departures from Peru, especially in weeks 49 to 52, demonstrates a more conservative reading of the market , prioritizing risk containment over shipments with unattractive returns.

4. Greater resilience of the 10 kg format

While both formats underwent corrections, the 10 kg format showed greater relative stability .

Strategic year-end readings

December 2025 yields several relevant conclusions for future planning:

• China is not a defensive market for avocados in December; it is a clearly seasonal market and highly conditioned by cherries.
• Timing is critical: arriving before the peak of the harvest or assuming minimum shipments is key to avoiding losses.
• Discipline in volume makes the difference: the reduction in Peruvian exports helped to avoid an even greater deterioration in prices.
• The rebound in week 1 confirms that the problem is not structural, but seasonal and cyclical.

Conclusion

The end of 2025 confirms that December is a month for risk management rather than profit-seeking for Hass avocados in China. Exporters who understood this dynamic and adjusted their volumes were better able to protect their returns.

With the gradual cherry harvest and the natural adjustment of stocks, the market begins the new year with a healthier price base. The key for 2026 will be anticipating these critical windows, trading high-quality fruit, and maintaining a keen understanding of the Chinese trade calendar.

André Vargas
Global Procurement Manager South American Express
Co- Commercial Director at Fruwer Produce LLC
avargas@fruwer.com