The 2025–2026 Mexican avocado season is progressing with clear signs of strong production, but also with significant challenges in terms of pricing and competitiveness. In a context of abundant supply and increasing pressure from other origins, Mexico reaffirms its global leadership, albeit in a more demanding environment than in previous seasons.

According to Antonio Villaseñor, the current season has reached unprecedented levels in terms of volume. “It has been a record-breaking volume season, and shipments have been historically high. Last week, we even reached levels similar to those of the Super Bowl, which represents a milestone for Mexican exports,” he notes.

The main feature of the season has been the downward pressure on prices. The abundance of fruit has created a market clearly dominated by buyers, where competition to place volume has intensified.

Along those lines, Ricardo Vega López confirms that returns to producers have been lower than expected. “What producers have received is historically low, influenced by the abundant harvest and the growth in hectares certified for export,” he explains.

Added to this scenario is a relevant exchange rate factor: the appreciation of the Mexican peso against the dollar, which has reduced income in local currency, directly affecting the producer's profitability.

Strong demand and increased global competitive pressure

Despite price pressures, demand —especially in the United States— has shown remarkable dynamism, driven largely by the competitive values of Mexican fruit.

“We are exporting more than 30,000 tons per week, when the expectation was 26,000 to 27,000,” Vega López explains. This increase in consumption has allowed us to absorb some of the oversupply, generating a slight, though still marginal, recovery in prices.

The continued consumption following the Super Bowl reinforces the strength of the market, even in a high availability scenario.

However, this season has broken with traditional market patterns. According to Villaseñor, “an abundant supply is expected from Mexico, which will be further boosted by California, whose harvest has not yet begun and is experiencing delays.” This overlap of volumes anticipates increased pressure in the coming weeks.

Furthermore, the gradual entry of other origins such as Peru and Colombia adds an additional competitive element. “The impact of more origins will generate even more pressure on prices, and this year could be especially challenging for finalizing programs,” he warns.

In the short term, the strong availability of Mexican fruit will continue to lead the market, especially during April and the first half of May, acting as a price stabilizing factor, but limiting the space for other origins.

As the season draws to a close, a slight decrease in supply is expected between March and June, although this will be offset by the entry of other producers. Regarding the next season, projections are still preliminary, but a similar or slightly smaller harvest is anticipated, which could lead to a more balanced price environment.

In this context, Mexico reaffirms its position as a key supplier globally, although facing an environment where the balance between volume and value will be increasingly crucial.