Right now, the key for California avocado growers isn't activity, but discipline. Generally speaking, it's not the ideal time to harvest in California. The best harvest window is usually March or April, when fruit maturity, size development, and market position align most favorably.

The current reality: Mexico dominates the retail market

At this point in the season, Mexico is flooding the market with fruit tied to Super Bowl demand. Retailers are buying Mexican fruit largely because:

– The supply is abundant and consistent

– Maturity is appropriate for their performance

– Retailers already have established programs around it

This creates a difficult environment for California to intervene and shift the volume.

Why won't retailers change easily?

Although California has fruit available, the real issue is ripeness. California fruit is generally not at the right stage of production, and retailers are very sensitive to quality and yield, especially during a high-visibility period like the Super Bowl.

What changes in March/April?

As we move into March and April, California's opportunity improves because:

– Maturity is generally better and fruit yield is strengthened

– Size curves stabilize in ranges more favorable to the market

– Buyers become more open to California volume once the season is established

Pay attention to the quoted prices

Quoted prices matter a lot. Producers should watch price trends as an indicator of when the market is starting to make room for California.

What to watch for in the next 30-45 days?

1. Signs that Mexico is reducing its supply
2. Changes in retail programs
3. California fruit ripeness
4. Price patterns that often precede a good harvest window
5. Indicators of your own garden

In short, now is not the time to harvest in California. Mexico is dominating retail demand with ripe, marketable fruit, and retailers are unlikely to change course. The best harvest window is typically March or April, and the best-performing growers are those who remain patient, allow the fruit to mature fully, and closely monitor quoted prices to move when the market is ready to reward California.