The avocado season in the United States is beginning to show a new balance between origins, with California and Peru gaining prominence in a season marked by adjustments in harvest times, variations in supply and a growing diversification of the supply.

From California, the production forecast remains at similar levels to the previous season. “The California harvest forecast is very similar to that of 2025 (150,000 tons),” explains Giovanni Cavaletto, president of GLC Cerritos, who points out that the main difference this year lies in market behavior during the winter.

The high prices recorded in 2025 encouraged an early harvest, while in 2026 the scenario was the opposite. “The low prices of winter 2026 delayed the start of the season. In 2025 we had harvested more than 15% of the projected volume, while in 2026 barely 2%,” he explains.

Gary Clevenger, an executive at Freska Produce International, LLC, offers a complementary perspective, noting that the Californian season is shaping up to be stable within a consolidated production pattern. “The 2026 California campaign is shaping up to be a solid and consistent season, with an estimated production of approximately 330 million pounds,” he states. In this context, peak availability will be concentrated between late spring and early summer, with a key sales window between April and August.

Currently, California accounts for between 10% and 15% of the supply to the US market, a share that should increase as the season progresses and volumes consolidate.

In terms of quality, both specialists agree on a favorable scenario, although there are differences compared to the Mexican product. “The quality is good. California can compete with Mexico in freshness, although dry matter levels are lower, between 26% and 28%, compared to Mexico's 32%–34%,” explains Cavaletto. He also points out that winter rains and a late start to the season could favor larger sizes.

Clevenger, for his part, emphasizes the consistent production of recent years. “This season is in line with what we’ve seen recently, with several consecutive harvests exceeding 300 million pounds, which brings stability to the industry.” Regarding the fruit, he adds that “the current harvest is concentrated in medium sizes, mainly 48 and 60, with good eating quality and oil content as it ripens.”

Peru enters the market cautiously and with great complexity

Meanwhile, the Peruvian campaign is beginning to take shape, albeit with a gradual entry into the US market. According to Clevenger, “Peru is starting the 2026 season in a measured and disciplined manner, with relatively low initial shipments focused primarily on Europe and other international markets.”

In line with this, he indicates that the impact in the United States will be limited in the first few weeks. “Initially, volumes to the US are small and haven't yet moved the market. The significant increase in supply usually occurs between the end of April and May.”

From Cavaletto's perspective, the preceding context was dominated almost exclusively by Mexico. "Since September, Mexico has accounted for more than 97% of the avocados available in the U.S.," he notes, highlighting that South American presence practically disappeared during the winter.

However, the scenario changes radically towards summer. “Instead of just one avocado option, there will be nine: different varieties from Mexico, California, Peru, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, and Florida,” he says, anticipating a much more competitive market.

In this new context, Peru's gradual entry adds another layer of complexity. "It adds more complexity. The United States needs demand to remain strong in other destinations such as Asia, Europe, and South America to minimize negative impacts," Cavaletto warns.

Clevenger complements this view from a market equilibrium perspective. “The arrival of Peruvian fruit in more significant volumes tends to create a better-supplied and more balanced market, especially when it coincides with the increase in supply from California,” he explains. And he emphasizes: “Peru doesn’t replace California, it complements it.”

Prices under pressure in a more competitive market

The overlap between these two origins also has direct implications for prices. According to Clevenger, this combination creates a more defensive environment. “When multiple origins are available, buyers gain bargaining power and price increases tend to be limited,” he argues.

However, he clarifies that this does not necessarily imply abrupt drops. "It's not about prices collapsing, but about a more competitive and balanced market."

Cavaletto offers a relevant insight from recent market behavior. “In March, Mexico increased its volume by 25% compared to February, and yet prices still rose,” he points out, attributing this to a surge in demand driven by promotions.

Along those lines, he emphasizes the role of retail. “In March 2026 there were 5,600 avocado promotions nationwide, compared to only 2,000 in March 2025,” reflecting a renewed interest from supermarkets in boosting consumption after successful campaigns like the Super Bowl.

Beyond the competition, both origins fulfill different functions within the US market. “California is a seasonal and local origin, with a proposition based on freshness and proximity, while Peru is designed to contribute volume and sustain the market during the summer,” explains Clevenger.

Cavaletto agrees with this strategic differentiation. “Each country emphasizes its advantages: California promotes local products, Peru works with fixed-price programs for 12 to 15 weeks, and Mexico offers quality year-round with strong promotional support.”

Taken together, the interaction between these origins creates a more robust, but also more demanding, supply system. The 2026 season is thus shaping up to be a turning point, where the diversity of supply and global coordination will be key to maintaining market equilibrium.