A look at the avocado market in Canada so far this year

What to Expect During the Transition from Winter to Spring–Summer?

General Market Overview

Considering that we are entering the seasonal transition from winter to spring and subsequently to summer, from June through September this year, avocados have consolidated their position as one of the most dynamic and strategic fruits in the Canadian fresh produce market during the first quarter of 2026.

It is important to note that Canada is כמעט entirely a net importer, as its climate prevents commercial production. So far in 2026, consumption growth has been driven by changes in dietary habits, the popularity of healthy diets, and the strong use of avocados in the foodservice sector (particularly restaurants, fast food, and ready-to-eat meals).

Looking at the background of recent years, Canada reached historical records between 2023 and 2024. The market then entered a more stable growth phase in 2025–2026, with increased focus on origin diversification and price control in a moderately inflationary environment. For 2026, consumption is expected to continue growing at a more controlled pace, in a market projecting greater stability—at least according to IQ indicators.

Imported Volumes

Reviewing recent statistics, Canadian avocado imports reached 112.9 million kilograms in 2024, with a value close to USD 297 million—the highest level recorded to date.

Partial data and projections for 2025–2026:

• Annual volume remains above 110 million kg.
• Expected year-over-year growth is moderate (2–4%), lower than the levels observed between 2020 and 2023.

Canada remains among the top 20 consuming markets globally, with approximately 95 thousand tons of total annual consumption, which is expected to continue growing at a moderate rate.

So far in 2026, market behavior aligns with expected growth trends. From January to April, the market has remained stable, with steady conditions and acceptable inventory turnover, mainly supplied by Mexico (93%).

This reflects a market that has reached a certain level of maturity, although it continues to grow in value.

Import Origins in 2026

Canadian supply is highly concentrated:

• Mexico: 93% of imported volume
• Peru: 3–4%
• Colombia: ~1%
• United States, New Zealand, and the Dominican Republic: smaller but strategic shares, especially during seasonal windows (e.g., green-skin varieties from the Dominican Republic and Brazil)

For 2026, there is emerging interest in diversifying origins, including small volumes from Morocco and East Africa, mainly as a strategy to mitigate logistical and climate-related risks.

Import and Sales Prices (YTD)

Import Prices (CIF)
In 2025, the average avocado import price in Canada was approximately:

• USD 2,900–3,000 per ton (≈ USD 2.9–3.0/kg)
• Seasonal peaks above USD 3,400/ton for alternative origins such as Morocco

Wholesale and Retail Prices – 2026 (average and current Week 18)

In the Canadian domestic market (Toronto and Montreal):

Wholesale prices:

• IQ: USD 1.5–2.0/kg in 2026 for standard Hass avocado

Week 18 Wholesale Market (CAD/box):

• S70 – Mexico Size 14x5: CAD 52
• S84 – Mexico Size 14x6: CAD 49
• S84 – Mexico Size 17x5: CAD 49
• S16 – Mexico: CAD 20.00 // S20 – Mexico: CAD 19.00
• S32 – Mexico: CAD 50.00 // S36 – Mexico: CAD 50.00
• S40 – Mexico: CAD 51.00
• S48 – Mexico: CAD 53.00 // S60 – Mexico: CAD 53.00

Retail price:

• CAD 5.2–11.6/kg depending on province, season, and channel
• Typical unit price: CAD 1.20–3.99 per piece

Price differentials reflect logistics costs, ripening, retail margins, and regional variations.

Fluctuations and Seasonality in 2026 – What Are We Seeing?

The Canadian avocado market shows clear seasonal fluctuations:

• Winter (Dec–Feb): Higher prices due to lower supply and higher logistics costs
• Summer (Jun–Aug): Prices 15–25% lower, especially when Mexican and South American harvests overlap

Additional fluctuations are driven by:

• Weather conditions in Mexico (droughts or excessive rainfall)
• Transportation costs and USD/CAD exchange rate
• Sudden supply disruptions due to security or logistical blockages
• Elevated logistics costs linked to the impact of conflicts in the Middle East

Demand and Consumption

Per capita consumption in Canada remains around 2.4–2.5 kg per person, with a slight stabilization trend toward 2026 after years of rapid growth.

Key demand drivers include:

• Young urban households
• Fast-casual restaurants and Mexican cuisine
• Value-added products: guacamole, frozen pulp, and avocado oil

Although per capita growth is moderating, population growth and immigration continue to support overall consumption increases.

Key Trends Toward 2026

The main trends in the Canadian market are:

• Strong preference for Hass avocado (≈85–90% of the market)
• Growth of the organic segment, with price premiums of 40–60%
• Increased retail interest in year-round supply programs, reducing volatility

Conclusion

In 2026, the Canadian avocado market is large, mature, and highly competitive, dominated by Mexico but with clear opportunities for alternative suppliers that can offer consistent quality, strategic supply windows, and reliable programs.

Demand remains solid, prices relatively stable, and purchasing decisions are increasingly influenced by sustainability, logistics efficiency, and risk management.

Kind regards,