Canada, the end of 2025 is not yet showing the significant and sufficient recovery we had expected after the summer holidays to allow for a balance between supply and demand. The Canadian market has been affected since June, as we mentioned in our previous article in September, when prices dropped considerably due to dormant demand and a large influx of avocados from Mexico, primarily (93%) between June and August. This led to an oversupplied market and intense pressure on players in the Hass avocado business. Demand was too low, resulting in unprecedentedly low prices that persisted for such a long period, even as we approach November. While the return from summer holidays is indeed favorable for avocado consumption at home, the country is currently in the season for some local harvests, mainly squash and other locally produced fruits. This affects the supply of fruits included in the exotic and/or other categories, which... The origin is external, the avocado being one of them, although we have seen for years its transition to becoming just another commodity in the global fruit basket.

Additionally, we must consider that we are in the seasonal transition period (autumn to winter), and this also affects the consumption preferences of the Canadian end consumer. The reduction in temperatures is already being felt, and therefore tastes, trends, and consumption patterns are beginning to change. Avocados are not a fruit highly affected during this transitional period, and in winter we usually see sustained demand and a balanced market. We hope that the end of 2025 and the beginning of the January-April 2026 period will show us a stable category, with good demand, controlled supply, and that this will allow for a balanced market with better prices for all those involved, from production to the final sale of the product on supermarket shelves, in the open market, and through other existing marketing channels.

The market in September and October continues to struggle to recover its average annual volume of 100-120 FCL/week. According to national statistics, the market in September and so far in October has seen an average import rate of 90 FCL/week, with prices not far from the trend observed in the American market, which is concerning. This means that large-caliber S40/S48 fish from Mexico are being sold in the wholesale market in 11.3 kg packages at an average price of CAD 50-55. Medium-caliber S60 fish maintain an average price of CAD 40-45, small-caliber S70 fish average CAD 30-35, and finally, S84 fish are being sold at an average price of CAD 25-30, with good stock turnover and a preference for distribution in nets, bags, and other packaging. which are included in the promotional flyers offered by the main national supermarket chains, wholesale and retail importers in the market that mainly supply medium and small independent supermarkets, the food service channel, horeca and industry.

Important aspects to monitor include the following factors, which will give us an indication of market behavior towards the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026:

- Production volume in the areas of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco in Mexico without certification which are not directed towards the American market.

- Behavior of the local market in Mexico which will serve as regulator and taker of non-certified fruit under the classification of the same as CAT 1.5 / 2.0.

- Resolution of the conflict generated by the productive base in Mexico in protest of the depreciated prices which have been affecting the productive base since June 2025.

- Demand and turnover of inventories acquired by large supermarket chains in their existing promotional offers and which are driven mainly by the sale of S70 / 84 calibers.

- Entry of imported volumes from Morocco, which last year already marked a moderate trend in imported volumes in the Canadian market.

We hope the market will recover its demand and normal flow, allowing for good sales of imported volumes and a recovery in prices that will benefit all those involved in the value chain, from external production to marketing. We will have to wait and continue closely monitoring the market, as is our daily and weekly duty and obligation. Currently, we are in a state of constant measurement and high speculation, which is reflected in the market. Although September and October showed better performance than June and July, there is still some nervousness in the market.

Mauricio López President / CEO Cosmo Fruit Global Inc. Tel.:+ 1 647 5300327 - mlopez@cosmofruitglobal.com www.cosmofruitglobal.com