Entering the height of winter, the Canadian market in general, across the east, west, and central regions, is showing stable prices this December, with a medium to high supply from Mexico and a shift in consumption towards other product categories from local harvests, the United States, and South America. Products such as apples, bananas, citrus fruits (oranges, tangerines, clementines), grapes, pears, mangoes, and strawberries are generally seeing increased consumption nationwide. Additionally, it's important to note that we may see a decrease in demand in the coming days due to the holiday season, which will take place in the second half of December and into early 2026. This could mean a slight decrease in overall avocado consumption, potentially impacting prices if available inventories remain high at the end of 2025.

Given the current demand, its behavior and trend, as well as the prudence taken by the spot market to control its inventories at the end of this year, the current volumes of 70/80 loads per week will not increase and their trend could lead to a decrease of 25/30% by the end of 2025; Given this trend, the main player in the Ontario, Quebec, and part of West Canada (BC) market is, as is its tradition, Mexico. The limited volumes received from Peru in the preceding months (April-October), coupled with the completion of its 2025 harvest, leave Mexico with a 100% share of the current market supply. With the Peruvian harvest now complete and inventories depleted from this source, the perception of Peru's harvest ending remains largely unchanged, suggesting little likelihood of increased volumes for the Canadian market in the short term, particularly in its projected 2026 harvest. This is unless Peru develops a robust and intensive promotional and marketing campaign focused on opening, developing, and increasing its fruit volume, primarily targeting supermarkets and the wholesale market. Such a campaign would be imperative from the outset to ensure the avocados presented in excellent condition and with superior flavor, thereby encouraging importers to adopt a more competitive purchasing position and gain greater confidence. The best short-term experience with this origin is expected from March to August 2026, and based on the results obtained, its volumes may increase in the coming years. This means that this origin requires work and strategy.
serious and sustainable over time that allows it to increase its current market share.

On the other hand, analyzing the other available player in the region, Colombia, the management and need for a sustainable investment strategy for the development of this market is even more evident given the lack of consistency in the quality of its arrivals. This signifies the arduous work required by the Colombian industry to conquer the Canadian market with a percentage share that will allow it to reach a 5% market share in the medium term and define this market as an alternative market of interest for the export and sale of its available volumes during its main harvest (September – February) and off-season (March – August). This strategy is supported by competitive, affordable prices that show a difference of approximately 20-25% compared to Mexico.

Finally, we will have to wait until the end of 2025 to see the volumes the market can receive from Morocco, for which commercial work began in the 2024/2025 season. Therefore, we are waiting to see what Morocco can offer the Canadian market, given its current harvest and logistical connections with acceptable transit times (12-14 days). We will have to wait and see…

Regarding current prices, in the Ontario market, for example, the supply is for S36/40 sizes, which are in the CAD 42-46 range in their traditional 11.3 kg packaging. Sizes 70/84 are offered at CAD 30/35, and their demand is developed through programs very focused on the presentation of 14x5 or 14x6 mesh. For these presentations, the selling prices range between 33/40.

We expect the market to recover its demand and normal flow during January and February, creating a more favorable environment for its participants. Weekly monitoring of the harvest situation in Mexico should continue through the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 to ensure good sales of imported volumes and a recovery in prices that will benefit the entire value chain involved.