The harvest is shrinking in California while import inventories are increasing

California's avocado harvest continued to decline this week, while imported inventories grew despite reduced arrivals. For growers still holding fruit on the trees, this combination makes coordination with marketers and harvest timing crucial. At the same time, the current heat wave is once again putting orchard care in the spotlight, and a new report from the Hass Avocado Board (HAB) highlights the growing interest in avocados among younger consumers.

The harvest falls below two million pounds

The industry-adjusted harvest reached 1.71 million pounds in the week ending October 4, down 35.3% from the previous week's 2.63 million pounds. Adjusted shipments fell 36.3% to 2.75 million pounds. Even so, shipments exceeded the new harvest by approximately 1.05 million pounds, reflecting the movement of existing fruit within the system. The season-to-date adjusted total reached 336.36 million pounds.

All of the harvest reported this week was Hass, totaling 1.66 million pounds before the adjustment. No new harvests of Lamb Hass, GEM, or other varieties were reported, although marketers continued to ship those types, including 292,325 pounds of Lamb Hass. A zero harvest in a single week doesn't mean all orchards have finished, but it does illustrate how limited the remaining supply has become in California.

Moderate arrivals, rising inventories

Mexico contributed 52.21 million pounds of Hass avocados, a 21.0% decrease from the 66.08 million pounds imported the previous week. Arrivals from Peru fell 31.4% to 2.61 million pounds, while Colombia added 47,731 pounds. Overall, Hass avocado imports declined 21.5% to 54.87 million pounds, with Mexico accounting for approximately 95% of the volume.

The import report for October 6 showed a different trend in inventories: total stocks rose 8.0% compared to the previous week, reaching 44.75 million pounds. Mexican inventories increased 10.6% to 42.91 million pounds, while Peruvian inventories fell 30.6% to 1.80 million pounds. The volume already committed was reported separately at 10.94 million pounds.

Lower arrivals should not be automatically interpreted as a tighter market when inventories continue to grow. The recommendation is to coordinate the remaining California harvest with confirmed sales, paying attention to size, quality, and delivery times. These reports describe volume and inventories, but they do not establish price trends or explain why stocks have increased.

Carpentry keeps the avocado in the spotlight

The 40th annual California Avocado Festival was held from October 2-4 in downtown Carpinteria, with local media coverage highlighting the food, music, and support for community organizations. The event celebrates the connection between California avocados, local agriculture, and the communities that support their cultivation. While it provides consumer visibility, the reviewed media coverage does not quantify any increase in sales resulting from the festival.

HAB identifies opportunity with young consumers

The Hass Avocado Board 's October 7th newsletter , titled "Gen Z's Appetite for Avocados Is Growing ," notes that 73% of Gen Z consumers have tried avocados, and 59% say they like or love them. Both figures are up from the previous survey. These are indicators of trial and preference, rather than frequent purchases, but they represent an encouraging sign for future demand.

For California growers and marketers, the conclusion is clear: make it easier for young people to choose and eat the fruit. Simple meal ideas, clear guidance on ripeness, and an identifiable Californian origin can enhance the shopping experience. The opportunity lies in converting interest into repeat purchases by giving consumers reasons to recognize California-grown avocados.

The same bulletin reported that U.S. retail avocado unit sales grew 4.8% year-over-year in the four weeks ending September 6, totaling 10.8 million units. Dollar sales increased 1.6%, while the national average price fell 3.0% to $1.11 per unit. The Southeast accounted for 29.9% of the unit growth. These results are from a prior period and do not reflect current prices or returns for California growers.

Heat wave and changing forecast

The National Weather Service forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard on October 7 indicates that the heat wave will persist at least through Thursday, October 8, followed by cooler temperatures between Friday and Sunday. Moisture associated with Hurricane Rachel could bring rain toward the weekend and into early next week, though the intensity will vary by area and remains uncertain. Growers should follow local forecasts rather than assuming significant rainfall across all orchards.

During hot weather, it is recommended to monitor irrigation and moisture in the root zone, as well as inspect exposed fruit and foliage for damage. For trees with significant canopy loss, the UC Cooperative Extension advises protecting exposed branches from the sun, avoiding immediate pruning, and reducing irrigation to match the lower water consumption of the damaged tree. Over-watering a weakened root system can create additional problems. These are recommendations established by UC based on current conditions, not a report of confirmed damage across the entire California crop.

The CAC's September 30 forecast also points to a potentially wetter winter. This is a seasonal projection, not a guarantee for every orchard. For now, the useful strategy is to manage the current heat, adjust irrigation as temperatures drop, and complete drainage maintenance before sustained winter rains arrive.