The California harvest is slowing as import inventories decline

The avocado season in California is nearing its end, with weekly harvests just above one million pounds. Imported Hass arrivals increased, but reported import inventories declined, reversing the previous week's increase. This week's news also includes renewed efforts by the California Avocado Commission on trade policy and a stronger call to prepare orchards for winter rains.

California's harvest falls another 38%

The industry-adjusted harvest in California totaled 1.06 million pounds in the week ending October 11, a 37.6% decrease from the previous week. Adjusted shipments fell 25.7% to 2.04 million pounds, still nearly double the volume that left the orchards. The season total reached 337.43 million pounds harvested and 333.70 million pounds shipped.

Before the industry adjustment, all reported field harvests were Hass avocados, totaling 1,036,055 pounds. Handlers also shipped 85,775 pounds of Lamb Hass and 4,650 pounds of other varieties. These figures reflect a dwindling supply in California, although a week with no reported harvest for a variety does not mean all orchards are finished. For growers with fruit still on the trees, harvest plans must remain closely aligned with handler needs, fruit condition, and size requirements.

Mexican arrivals increase while inventories decrease

Mexico contributed 55.92 million pounds of Hass avocados, a 7.1% increase over the previous week and equivalent to approximately 97.5% of the total imported volume of this variety. Arrivals from Peru fell 53.3% to 1.22 million pounds, while Colombia contributed 191,094 pounds. Overall, imported Hass avocados increased 4.5% to 57.33 million pounds.

The daily report for October 13 showed total import inventories of 40.03 million pounds, down 10.5% from 44.75 million pounds the previous week. Mexican inventories fell to 38.60 million pounds and Peruvian inventories to 1.30 million pounds. Committed volume, reported separately, rose 4.7% to 11.45 million pounds.

The decrease in inventory warrants attention given the reduced availability in California. However, a single week of lower stocks does not establish a sustained trend of price adjustment or an increase in prices. The recommendation is to confirm actual demand with handlers before making the next harvest decision, rather than relying solely on arrivals.

The CAC renews its call to limit imports

In an October 8 update, the California Avocado Commission reaffirmed its intention to push for a tariff on Mexican avocado imports. The statement reviewed a letter sent on October 5 by seven members of Congress, urging U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to prioritize enforceable limits over increased Mexican imports during the renegotiation of the USMCA. The Commission also questioned whether Mexico's new certification measures adequately address its supply chain concerns.