The first weeks of 2025 have been anything but predictable for the avocado market in Morocco. With 70% of the harvest underway, exporters are already facing significant price uncertainty, with prices showing no signs of stabilizing. Against this backdrop, Morocco has flooded the market with a massive supply of large-sized fruit, just as the market is demanding smaller and medium sizes. This mismatch between supply and demand has created a surplus of large sizes, such as 12 and 14, while buyers are looking for avocados in the 20, 22, 24, 26, and 28 ranges.

So far, the country has exported 84,000 tons, with an additional 30,000 to 40,000 tons still to be sold. However, the outlook is not promising: far from a possible recovery, expectations point to a drop in prices, especially with the imminent arrival of fruit from Peru, whose market reaction could define the course of the coming weeks.

Faced with this situation, Moroccan producers have begun to diversify their growing areas. While coastal regions, with sandy soils and abundant water, produce larger fruit, areas with less water availability yield smaller fruit, more in line with current demand. This strategy aims to balance supply, but the big question remains whether the market will absorb the remaining volume without a further drop in prices.

Morocco faces a paradox: its productive efficiency and export capacity have allowed it to position itself as a key player in the avocado market, but a lack of alignment with consumer preferences could become a serious obstacle. The lesson for the future is clear: production must adjust to market trends, not only in volume but also in the specifics of demand. Otherwise, exporters risk seeing their profit margins eroded in an increasingly demanding and competitive market.

Yassin Chaib Morocco