Mexico: Market Comments
It appears the Mexican avocado industry has taken a breather in terms of the amount of fruit shipped to the United States; 1,089 shipments isn't a particularly high number considering the volumes of fruit recorded prior to the Super Bowl. It's expected that shipments from Mexico will adjust to importers' demand once the actual sales figures for the weekend are fully analyzed. Without a doubt, Super Bowl 2024 was another success for Mexican avocados.
The most significant change during the week was the increase in demand for size 48 fruit, which led to an upward adjustment in the price of this size and, consequently, an increase in farmgate prices. This change in demand could be interpreted as positive; however, the smaller sizes did not react in the same way, and consequently, we returned to the situation we had at the beginning of the year when the price of size 48 fruit was well above that of size 60 fruit. In this case, the week closed with a difference of at least seven to eight dollars, and this difference could increase even further during week 7. Such a large difference in these two sizes, which are the most commercially important in the market, could create uncertainty for both buyers and sellers, as it generates speculation about the possibility that some retailers might shift their purchases to size 60 fruit. We will see in the coming days if this is the case.
Mexican exporters are experiencing increased demand for fruit from other countries, primarily Japan, China, and to a lesser extent, Korea. Japan is a traditional market for Mexican fruit and should be supplied regularly. China is still a developing market for Mexican fruit, where trust between importers and exporters needs to be strengthened. Mexican exporters will need to adapt to market changes driven by other sources, such as the requirement that fruit be packaged in four-kilogram boxes.
Mexico must remain the main supplier, at least to the North American and Asian markets, in the coming weeks.
Sergio Paz Vega
