Mexico: Market Comments
In week eight, the Mexican industry exported over 1,350 shipments to the United States market. The abundant fruit harvest kept the price offered to producers relatively stable. However, toward the second half of the week, some discounted prices began to appear, mainly around 48 cents. Exporters with stable sales programs maintained their prices, so the fruit in the open market, primarily from the border region, was quoted at lower prices. As is often the case in these circumstances, a few oversupplied shipments in the open market generate more noise than the bulk of the volume held by companies with well-planned sales.
In theory, there are no grounds to predict a significant downward adjustment in Mexican fruit prices. Inventories have not increased, and farmgate prices, resulting from consistent demand, have also remained unchanged. The weather in major consumption centers has improved considerably, so an increase in consumption can be expected, supported by sufficient supply to promote avocados. Ambient temperatures in the main producing regions are also rising, which is normal for this time of year and will be a factor in many producers' decisions when scheduling their harvest.
Exports continue to be dominated by size 48, with exporters prioritizing this size. It will be interesting to observe the behavior of the Mexican fruit size curve in the coming weeks and months, as it is very likely that the proportion of smaller sizes being reserved for the end of the season will be higher than in previous seasons. On the other hand, the Mexican domestic market could begin to offer competitive prices for smaller sizes and second-grade fruit. It is normal for this market to pay higher prices during the Lenten season leading up to Holy Week, which this year falls in late March.
Sergio Paz Vega
