Harvest update:

Last week's California avocado harvest totaled approximately 14.5 million pounds. Despite the strong production, strong early arrivals from Peru have impacted the market, leading to lower prices and weaker demand at retailers. Prices for sizes 60 and 70 decreased by approximately 8% last week, reflecting softer demand and high inventory levels in these sizes.

Market dynamics:

Normally, at this point in the season, Mexico reduces its avocado exports to the United States, allowing retailers to focus entirely on California avocados. However, this year we have seen a significant increase in avocado acreage in Peru and Colombia, resulting in higher and earlier import volumes. This influx has disrupted the usual market dynamics, which could indicate a new norm rather than a seasonal exception.

Once Mexico transitions from its current crop to the upcoming Loca crop, we anticipate potential improvements in demand for California-grown avocados. The current price level remains remarkably strong, exceeding $2.00 per pound for fruit larger than 48 inches, which continues to contribute to higher retail prices.

Highlight - Gem variety:

One positive note this season has been the impressive performance of the Gem variety. California growers have delivered nearly 5 million pounds of Gems to date, and these have moved quickly through the market, indicating strong consumer demand for this variety.

Perspective:

Looking ahead, we expect inventories to build up over the next week. The crucial question remains: what level of weekly avocado consumption can the United States sustain? This consumption rate will significantly influence market stability and future prices.

Stay tuned as we continue to monitor market trends and provide insights into the evolving avocado landscape.

Gary Clevenger Freska Produce International, LLC gary@freskaproduce.com