The avocado season in Kenya began under a highly uncertain scenario due to the Red Sea crisis and tensions in the Middle East. Despite this context, the sector has managed to maintain its pace thanks to a rapid capacity for adaptation. According to Paul Kyalo , exporters have had to cope with the closure of key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, forcing a complete redesign of export logistics.

Faced with this scenario, the industry has implemented solutions such as land corridors from Red Sea ports to Gulf destinations, in addition to alternative maritime routes around the African continent. Although these routes can extend shipping times by 10 to 14 days, the increased predictability has allowed for maintaining the cold chain and ensuring product quality at the destination. At the same time, trade with Asia, especially China, remains strong and represents a strategic counterweight to the difficulties in Western markets.

In terms of demand, the situation is mixed. While the Middle East, Turkey, and China continue to show strong growth and maintain stable prices, Europe is experiencing a slower pace, influenced by both longer transit times and a deliberate strategy by exporters to reserve larger volumes for the second half of the year. This planning aims to take advantage of more stable and profitable trading windows, prioritizing not only volume but also the value of the exported fruit.

At the local level, the growth of the processing industry, especially avocado oil production, is changing the dynamics of the sector. This domestic demand has strengthened producer prices by offering a viable alternative to exporting. Overall, the combination of limited supply at the start of the season, logistical adjustments, and a global market in transition has created a favorable scenario for Kenyan producers, who are approaching 2026 with a strategy focused on quality, coordination, and reliability.

Source: freshplaza.es