The 2025/2026 avocado season in Morocco begins marked by a climate challenge: the heat wave at the end of June caused fruit drop in some growing areas. The reduction is real, but it's important to analyze this situation with perspective and without alarmism.

In public debate, figures are sometimes exaggerated, conveying a sense of an imminent crisis. I don't share that view. Yes, we are facing a 30% to 40% decrease compared to initial projections, but the strength of our sector lies in its adaptability. Every year, new farms and cultivated areas come into production, helping to offset temporary losses. It is this diversity of producers and the dynamism of investment that allows us to maintain a continuous supply.

Another aspect to understand is price behavior. This season's start is at higher levels, around 30 dirhams per kilo, compared to 17 dirhams at the beginning of last year. However, this is not an exceptional phenomenon, but rather part of a typical dynamic: prices start high and gradually adjust as volumes increase. We shouldn't mistake this situation for signs of instability.

Last year was extraordinary: we achieved a record production of almost 130,000 tons and exported nearly 100,000. That foundation, combined with the addition of new plantings, provides the cushion that allows us to face a more complex cycle without losing sight of continuity. Even the strategic decisions to delay the harvest of varieties like Hass are aimed at guaranteeing an orderly and sustained supply.

Beyond the figures, what is being tested is the resilience of the Moroccan avocado sector. And that resilience rests on three pillars: the diversity of producers, the constant expansion of production areas, and the capacity to adapt to increasingly demanding climatic conditions.

The 2025/2026 season will not be one of records, but neither will it be one of breakthroughs. It will be a season of consolidation, demonstrating that Morocco can maintain its international presence with a stable and reliable offering, even in an adverse year. That is the true strength of our sector: not only to grow in good times, but also to respond robustly when the weather tests our capabilities.

Yassin Chaib Export Manager Mavoca Morocco